Basel 0-1 Lugano — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland - Super League, 3 Feb 2024

Basel
0-1 HT 0-0
Lugano
📅03/02/2024 · 🕒22:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.19
Draw
25%
3.28
Away
40%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
1.8
Over 2.5
51%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.76
No
48%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
3.05
2-3 Goals
38%
1.76
4-5 Goals
25%
3.79
6+ Goals
10%
16.4
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
3.25
1/2
7%
33.0
1/X
10%
13.45
X/1
11%
4.86
X/2
13%
5.99
X/X
8%
4.47
2/1
6%
27.5
2/2
21%
4.35
2/X
6%
13.65
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
42%
-7.5pp
25%
Draw
27%
-2.0pp
40%
Away Win
31%
+9.4pp
49%
Under 2.5
52%
-2.5pp
51%
Over 2.5
48%
+2.5pp
52%
BTTS Yes
53%
-1.0pp
48%
BTTS No
47%
+1.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Basel EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Lugano EU Bookmakers 34%
+4% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +3%
1.74/1.75 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.38/1.38
+22% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / -6%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
358 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 305 · 76%
22.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.1
17.2 Crosses 16.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Basel
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Lugano
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.35 xG 1.16
50% Ball Possession 49%
13 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
356 Passes 344
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
23 Box Touches 16
18 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 3
06.12.2023 Lugano Lugano 1-3 HT 0-1 Basel Basel İSV
21.05.2023 Basel Basel 1-1 HT 1-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
26.02.2023 Lugano Lugano 2-2 HT 2-0 Basel Basel İSV
09.10.2022 Lugano Lugano 1-0 HT 1-0 Basel Basel İSV
14.08.2022 Basel Basel 0-2 HT 0-0 Lugano Lugano İSV
22.05.2022 Basel Basel 2-1 HT 1-1 Lugano Lugano İSV
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Basel
0-1
AWAY Lugano
1.71 xG 0.89
54% Ball Possession 46%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 1
6 Corners 3
423 Passes 341
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
20 Box Touches 12
31 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Basel vs Lugano
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lugano nicked a narrow win over Basel 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (34% / 25% / 40%) promised a tight game; Lugano found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Basel had 54% of the ball to Lugano's 46%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 1.71 to 0.89 — on chances, Basel could feel hard done by.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Basel and 1.33 for Lugano.

What was the final score of Basel vs Lugano?

Basel 0-1 Lugano in the Switzerland - Super League on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Basel vs Lugano?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lugano win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Basel 34%, draw 25%, Lugano 40%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lugano) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Lugano) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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