Bologna 4-2 Sassuolo — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Italy - Serie A, 3 Feb 2024

📅03/02/2024 · 🕒22:45 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.61
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
21%
4.85
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
56%
1.8
Over 2.5
44%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.96
No
55%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
3.03
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
17%
3.8
6+ Goals
11%
16.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.03 — our 32% vs market 27.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
27%
2.06
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
6%
15.75
X/1
21%
3.71
X/2
5%
10.55
X/X
9%
4.83
2/1
8%
25.0
2/2
11%
8.82
2/X
8%
16.8
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
58%
-2.6pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.0pp
21%
Away Win
18%
+3.7pp
56%
Under 2.5
52%
+4.9pp
44%
Over 2.5
48%
-4.9pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-2.1pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+2.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bologna EU Bookmakers 62%
Head to Head
AWAY Sassuolo EU Bookmakers 21%
+4% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +10% / +2%
1.76/1.04 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.27/1.95
+0% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +54% / -15%
56% Ball Possession 44%
17 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
384 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 247 · 71%
26.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.5
19.8 Crosses 13.6
2.1 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bologna
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Sassuolo
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.05 xG 0.99
47% Ball Possession 53%
8 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
370 Passes 410
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
13 Box Touches 26
12 Crosses 20
1 Yellow Cards 1
28.10.2023 Sassuolo Sassuolo 1-1 HT 1-1 Bologna Bologna İTA
08.05.2023 Sassuolo Sassuolo 1-1 HT 1-1 Bologna Bologna İTA
12.11.2022 Bologna Bologna 3-0 HT 1-0 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
15.05.2022 Bologna Bologna 1-3 HT 0-1 Sassuolo Sassuolo İTA
22.12.2021 Sassuolo Sassuolo 0-3 HT 0-2 Bologna Bologna İTA
20.02.2021 Sassuolo Sassuolo 1-1 HT 0-1 Bologna Bologna İTA
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bologna
4-2
AWAY Sassuolo
1.07 xG 0.77
71% Ball Possession 29%
19 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 4
596 Passes 185
86% Pass Accuracy 67%
29 Box Touches 23
19 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Bologna vs Sassuolo
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bologna got the better of Sassuolo 4-2. It was 1-2 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Bologna as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (56%), no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Bologna had 71% of the ball to Sassuolo's 29%, shots finished 19-12, expected goals 1.07 to 0.77.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bologna had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Bologna and 1.00 for Sassuolo.

What was the final score of Bologna vs Sassuolo?

Bologna 4-2 Sassuolo in the Italy - Serie A on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bologna vs Sassuolo?

Before kick-off our model rated a Bologna win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Bologna 55%, draw 23%, Sassuolo 21%. The final score 4-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bologna) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bologna) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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