İran 2-1 Japonya — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Asian Cup, 3 Feb 2024

İran
2-1 HT 0-1
Japonya
📅03/02/2024 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Asian Cup – 2023

İran vs Japonya Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.75
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
43%
1.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
68%
1.59
Over 2.5
32%
2.23
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.09
No
60%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
38%
2.4
2-3 Goals
42%
1.76
4-5 Goals
14%
4.92
6+ Goals
6%
28.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.4 — our 38% vs market 34.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
12%
6.84
1/2
3%
29.0
1/X
8%
16.05
X/1
12%
7.89
X/2
14%
3.9
X/X
12%
3.99
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
25%
2.57
2/X
8%
15.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
23%
+6.2pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.0pp
43%
Away Win
50%
-6.2pp
68%
Under 2.5
59%
+8.7pp
32%
Over 2.5
41%
-8.7pp
40%
BTTS Yes
44%
-4.0pp
60%
BTTS No
56%
+4.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

İran v Japonya — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME İran EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Japonya EU Bookmakers 54%
+7% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-100% / – Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) – / –
41% Ball Possession 59%
9 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 6
245 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 374 · 80%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
– Yellow Cards –

İran vs Japonya Head-to-Head — Last 2 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME İran
0W-1D-1L
AWAY Japonya
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.29 xG 2.02
47% Ball Possession 53%
11 Total Shots 7
3 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 1
194 Passes 258
65% Pass Accuracy 74%
13 Box Touches 21
18 Crosses 8
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.01.2019 İran İran 0-3 HT 0-0 Japonya Japonya ASK
13.10.2015 İran İran 1-1 HT 1-0 Japonya Japonya HAZ

İran 2-1 Japonya — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME İran
2-1
AWAY Japonya
1.85 xG 0.77
42% Ball Possession 58%
17 Total Shots 8
4 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 3
225 Passes 365
72% Pass Accuracy 82%
18 Box Touches 13
18 Crosses 13
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH İran vs Japonya
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

İran nicked a narrow win over Japonya 2-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Japonya at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (68%), no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, İran had 42% of the ball to Japonya's 58%, shots finished 17-8, expected goals 1.85 to 0.77.

For context: across their last 2 meetings in our records, Japonya led the recent series with 1 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for İran and 2.00 for Japonya.

What was the final score of İran vs Japonya?

İran 2-1 Japonya in the Asian Cup on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for İran vs Japonya?

Before kick-off our model rated an Japonya win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split İran 30%, draw 27%, Japonya 43%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Japonya) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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