Katar 1-1 Özbekistan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Asian Cup, 3 Feb 2024

Katar
1-1 HT 1-0
Özbekistan
📅03/02/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Asian Cup – 2023

Katar vs Özbekistan Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
2.46
Draw
24%
2.88
Away
30%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.48
Over 2.5
39%
2.51
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.09
No
58%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
30%
2.17
2-3 Goals
49%
1.79
4-5 Goals
16%
5.69
6+ Goals
5%
34.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
25%
3.8
1/2
4%
34.0
1/X
4%
14.2
X/1
16%
4.95
X/2 EV+ ✗
21%
5.56
X/X
10%
3.46
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
4%
4.48
2/X
10%
14.3
Value flag · X/2 at 5.56 — our 21% vs market 13.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
37%
+8.8pp
24%
Draw
32%
-7.4pp
30%
Away Win
31%
-1.4pp
61%
Under 2.5
64%
-3.0pp
39%
Over 2.5
36%
+3.0pp
42%
BTTS Yes
44%
-2.0pp
58%
BTTS No
56%
+2.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Katar v Özbekistan — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Katar EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Özbekistan EU Bookmakers 34%
+32% / +32% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +8% / +8%
0.32/0.84 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.66/1.42
+51% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +85% / -44%
51% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
325 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 339 · 79%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.0
11.0 Crosses 5.0
3.0 Yellow Cards 3.0

Katar vs Özbekistan Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Katar
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Özbekistan
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 6
210 Passes 207
69% Pass Accuracy 68%
12 Box Touches 7
13 Crosses 18
1 Yellow Cards 4
The Meetings
16.10.2018 Özbekistan Özbekistan 2-0 HT 0-0 Katar Katar HAZ
28.03.2017 Özbekistan Özbekistan 1-0 HT 0-0 Katar Katar DKE
06.09.2016 Katar Katar 0-1 HT 0-0 Özbekistan Özbekistan DKE
06.10.2014 Katar Katar 3-0 HT 2-0 Özbekistan Özbekistan HAZ
18.06.2013 Özbekistan Özbekistan 5-1 HT 0-1 Katar Katar DKE
16.10.2012 Katar Katar 0-1 HT 0-1 Özbekistan Özbekistan DKE

Katar 1-1 Özbekistan — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Katar
1-1
AWAY Özbekistan
0.40 xG 1.03
55% Ball Possession 45%
10 Total Shots 15
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 9
433 Passes 323
72% Pass Accuracy 66%
23 Box Touches 31
18 Crosses 19
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Katar vs Özbekistan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Katar and Özbekistan couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Katar at 46%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (61%) landed while no to both teams scoring (58%) missed.

On the day, Katar had 55% of the ball to Özbekistan's 45%, shots finished 10-15, expected goals 0.40 to 1.03.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Özbekistan led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Katar and 1.67 for Özbekistan.

What was the final score of Katar vs Özbekistan?

Katar 1-1 Özbekistan in the Asian Cup on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Katar vs Özbekistan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Katar win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Katar 46%, draw 24%, Özbekistan 30%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Katar), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Katar) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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