Sebail FK 1-2 Karabağ — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Azerbaijan - Super League, 3 Feb 2024

Sebail FK
1-2 HT 0-1
Karabağ
📅03/02/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-3 ✗ 2nd Score 0-3 ✗
Azerbaijan - Super League – 2023/2024

Sebail FK vs Karabağ Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
22%
7.78
Draw
20%
5.15
Away
58%
1.28
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.38
Over 2.5
57%
1.52
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.9
No
50%
1.81
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
36%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
14%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
10%
1/2
7%
1/X
5%
X/1
6%
X/2
20%
X/X
7%
2/1
6%
2/2
31%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
22%
Home Win
10%
+12.0pp
20%
Draw
16%
+3.5pp
58%
Away Win
74%
-15.4pp
43%
Under 2.5
38%
+5.2pp
57%
Over 2.5
62%
-5.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
49%
+1.6pp
50%
BTTS No
51%
-1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sebail FK v Karabağ — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sebail FK EU Bookmakers 13%
Head to Head
AWAY Karabağ EU Bookmakers 78%
+11% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -6% / -10%
0.78/1.83 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.22/0.64
+45% / +14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +13% / -28%
36% Ball Possession 64%
8 Total Shots 19
3 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 7
244 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 442 · 83%
– Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area –
– Crosses –
2.0 Yellow Cards 1.8

Sebail FK vs Karabağ Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sebail FK
1W-0D-5L
AWAY Karabağ
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.67
36% Ball Possession 64%
6 Total Shots 22
3 Shots on Target 10
4 Corners 10
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
12.11.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 3-1 HT 2-0 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERS
03.09.2023 Sebail FK Sebail FK 2-1 HT 2-1 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
13.05.2023 Sebail FK Sebail FK 0-3 HT 0-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
11.03.2023 Karabağ Karabağ 3-0 HT 2-0 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERS
24.12.2022 Sebail FK Sebail FK 0-3 HT 0-0 Karabağ Karabağ AZERS
06.08.2022 Karabağ Karabağ 3-1 HT 2-0 Sebail FK Sebail FK AZERS
POST-MATCH Sebail FK vs Karabağ
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Karabağ squeezed past Sebail FK 2-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Karabağ as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%) came in.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Karabağ led the recent series with 5 wins. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Sebail FK and 2.67 for Karabağ.

What was the final score of Sebail FK vs Karabağ?

Sebail FK 1-2 Karabağ in the Azerbaijan - Super League on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sebail FK vs Karabağ?

Before kick-off our model rated an Karabağ win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Sebail FK 22%, draw 20%, Karabağ 58%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Karabağ), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Karabağ) ✓ Over 2.5
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AZERS More Azerbaijan - Super League
3 Feb 2024
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