Şili U23 2-1 Paraguay U23 — Result, Statistics & Match Review — CONMEBOL - Olympic Qualifiers, 3 Feb 2024

📅03/02/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
2.8
Draw
23%
3.18
Away
49%
2.32
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.74
Over 2.5
46%
2.0
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.81
No
50%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
47%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
6%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
4%
1/X
3%
X/1
6%
X/2
19%
X/X
10%
2/1
3%
2/2
26%
2/X
10%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
32%
-4.0pp
22%
Draw
28%
-5.8pp
49%
Away Win
40%
+9.8pp
54%
Under 2.5
54%
+0.3pp
46%
Over 2.5
46%
-0.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
51%
-0.8pp
50%
BTTS No
49%
+0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Şili U23 EU Bookmakers 36%
Head to Head
AWAY Paraguay U23 EU Bookmakers 43%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
47% Ball Possession 53%
10 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 5
200 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 356 · 80%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Şili U23
2-1
AWAY Paraguay U23
1.66 xG 0.30
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
327 Passes 313
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
17 Box Touches 17
17 Crosses 15
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Şili U23 vs Paraguay U23
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Şili U23 squeezed past Paraguay U23 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Paraguay U23 at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Şili U23 had 52% of the ball to Paraguay U23's 48%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 1.66 to 0.30 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Şili U23's control.

What was the final score of Şili U23 vs Paraguay U23?

Şili U23 2-1 Paraguay U23 in the CONMEBOL - Olympic Qualifiers on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Şili U23 vs Paraguay U23?

Before kick-off our model rated an Paraguay U23 win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Şili U23 28%, draw 22%, Paraguay U23 49%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Paraguay U23) ✗ Under 2.5
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