Şili U23 vs Paraguay U23 Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Şili U23 v Paraguay U23 — Team-Based Signals
Şili U23 2-1 Paraguay U23 — Actual Match Statistics
Şili U23 squeezed past Paraguay U23 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Our pre-match lean was Paraguay U23 at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
On the day, Şili U23 had 52% of the ball to Paraguay U23's 48%, shots finished 14-10, expected goals 1.66 to 0.30 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Şili U23's control.
What was the final score of Şili U23 vs Paraguay U23?
Şili U23 2-1 Paraguay U23 in the CONMEBOL - Olympic Qualifiers on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Şili U23 vs Paraguay U23?
Before kick-off our model rated an Paraguay U23 win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Şili U23 28%, draw 22%, Paraguay U23 49%. The final score 2-1 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.