Nantes 0-1 Lens — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 3 Feb 2024

Nantes
0-1 HT 0-0
Lens
📅03/02/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
33%
3.17
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
40%
2.03
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
54%
1.78
Over 2.5
46%
1.95
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.81
No
52%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
3.01
2-3 Goals
42%
1.76
4-5 Goals
21%
3.84
6+ Goals
9%
16.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.01 — our 28% vs market 27.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
5.28
1/2
12%
26.5
1/X
7%
13.75
X/1
12%
6.98
X/2
9%
4.49
X/X
12%
4.36
2/1
6%
34.0
2/2
20%
2.84
2/X
8%
13.3
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
33%
Home Win
28%
+4.8pp
27%
Draw
27%
-0.2pp
41%
Away Win
45%
-4.6pp
54%
Under 2.5
52%
+1.1pp
46%
Over 2.5
48%
-1.1pp
48%
BTTS Yes
51%
-3.5pp
52%
BTTS No
49%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nantes EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Lens EU Bookmakers 49%
-13% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +1%
1.34/1.36 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.31/1.36
-35% / -5% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +6%
43% Ball Possession 57%
10 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
271 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 410 · 81%
21.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.2
22.3 Crosses 19.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nantes
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Lens
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.16 xG 2.19
43% Ball Possession 57%
11 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
332 Passes 476
82% Pass Accuracy 86%
20 Box Touches 26
19 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 1
28.10.2023 Lens Lens 4-0 HT 1-0 Nantes Nantes FR1
01.03.2023 Nantes Nantes 2-1 HT 1-1 Lens Lens FRK
19.02.2023 Lens Lens 3-1 HT 2-1 Nantes Nantes FR1
18.09.2022 Nantes Nantes 0-0 HT 0-0 Lens Lens FR1
30.04.2022 Lens Lens 2-2 HT 0-2 Nantes Nantes FR1
10.12.2021 Nantes Nantes 3-2 HT 0-2 Lens Lens FR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nantes
0-1
AWAY Lens
0.62 xG 1.62
42% Ball Possession 58%
7 Total Shots 12
2 Shots on Target 4
2 Corners 3
309 Passes 446
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
10 Box Touches 26
11 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Nantes vs Lens
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Lens edged past Nantes 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Lens as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 46% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Nantes had 42% of the ball to Lens's 58%, shots finished 7-12, expected goals 0.62 to 1.62.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Nantes and 2.00 for Lens.

What was the final score of Nantes vs Lens?

Nantes 0-1 Lens in the France - Ligue 1 on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nantes vs Lens?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lens win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Nantes 33%, draw 27%, Lens 41%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Lens), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Lens) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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