Rennes 2-1 Montpellier — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 3 Feb 2024

Rennes
2-1 HT 1-0
Montpellier
📅03/02/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2023/2024

Rennes vs Montpellier Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
52%
1.53
Draw
25%
3.8
Away
23%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.86
Over 2.5
53%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.96
No
48%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.22
2-3 Goals
38%
1.77
4-5 Goals EV+ ✗
26%
3.61
6+ Goals
12%
14.7
Value flag · 4-5 Goals at 3.61 — our 26% vs market 22.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.92
1/2
5%
34.0
1/X
8%
17.15
X/1
20%
3.56
X/2
9%
11.65
X/X
10%
5.3
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
24.3
2/2
9%
9.76
2/X
7%
18.05
Value flag · 2/1 at 24.3 — our 8% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
61%
-9.3pp
25%
Draw
23%
+2.1pp
23%
Away Win
16%
+7.2pp
47%
Under 2.5
50%
-2.7pp
53%
Over 2.5
50%
+2.7pp
52%
BTTS Yes
47%
+4.8pp
48%
BTTS No
53%
-4.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Rennes v Montpellier — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rennes EU Bookmakers 66%
Head to Head
AWAY Montpellier EU Bookmakers 20%
+2% / +14% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +7%
1.95/0.77 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.87
+23% / +32% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +44% / -6%
58% Ball Possession 42%
15 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
439 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 289 · 77%
29.8 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.6
17.4 Crosses 15.9
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.1

Rennes vs Montpellier Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rennes
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Montpellier
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.67 xG 1.33
62% Ball Possession 38%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 4
478 Passes 248
85% Pass Accuracy 74%
29 Box Touches 16
22 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
24.09.2023 Montpellier Montpellier 0-0 HT 0-0 Rennes Rennes FR1
23.04.2023 Montpellier Montpellier 1-0 HT 0-0 Rennes Rennes FR1
30.10.2022 Rennes Rennes 3-0 HT 2-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
25.02.2022 Montpellier Montpellier 2-4 HT 2-2 Rennes Rennes FR1
20.11.2021 Rennes Rennes 2-0 HT 2-0 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
21.02.2021 Montpellier Montpellier 2-1 HT 2-0 Rennes Rennes FR1

Rennes 2-1 Montpellier — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rennes
2-1
AWAY Montpellier
1.97 xG 1.27
48% Ball Possession 52%
9 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 9
5 Corners 3
316 Passes 324
80% Pass Accuracy 80%
23 Box Touches 21
10 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Rennes vs Montpellier
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rennes nicked a narrow win over Montpellier 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Rennes as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, Rennes had 48% of the ball to Montpellier's 52%, shots finished 9-17, expected goals 1.97 to 1.27.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rennes had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Rennes and 0.83 for Montpellier.

What was the final score of Rennes vs Montpellier?

Rennes 2-1 Montpellier in the France - Ligue 1 on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rennes vs Montpellier?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rennes win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Rennes 52%, draw 25%, Montpellier 23%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rennes), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Rennes) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
FR1 More France - Ligue 1
3 Feb 2024
23:00 Nantes vs Lens Analysis →