Puebla 3-2 Mazatlan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera, 3 Feb 2024

Puebla
3-2 HT 1-1
Mazatlan
📅03/02/2024 · 🕒06:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-2 ✗
Mexico - Primera – 2023/2024

Puebla vs Mazatlan Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
1.92
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
34%
3.34
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.1
Over 2.5
50%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.6
No
46%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.05
2-3 Goals
42%
1.84
4-5 Goals
23%
3.06
6+ Goals
10%
9.8
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1.92
1/2
9%
34.0
1/X
5%
15.65
X/1
11%
3.84
X/2 EV+ ✗
15%
11.15
X/X
16%
6.03
2/1
6%
21.1
2/2
10%
8.29
2/X
8%
16.25
Value flag · X/2 at 11.15 — our 15% vs market 5.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
48%
-11.2pp
29%
Draw
25%
+4.2pp
34%
Away Win
27%
+6.9pp
50%
Under 2.5
44%
+6.1pp
50%
Over 2.5
56%
-6.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.5pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+4.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Puebla v Mazatlan — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Puebla EU Bookmakers 52%
Head to Head
AWAY Mazatlan EU Bookmakers 30%
+0% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -10%
1.13/1.06 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.81/1.47
-11% / +27% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -4% / -26%
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
294 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 319 · 80%
20.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 13.6
19.6 Crosses 14.4
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.3

Puebla vs Mazatlan Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Puebla
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Mazatlan
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.70 xG 1.42
49% Ball Possession 51%
15 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
287 Passes 286
78% Pass Accuracy 78%
20 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
23.08.2023 Mazatlan Mazatlan 1-0 HT 0-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
11.02.2023 Puebla Puebla 3-1 HT 3-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
02.07.2022 Mazatlan Mazatlan 2-4 HT 0-2 Puebla Puebla MEK
09.05.2022 Puebla Puebla 2-2 HT 2-1 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK
30.04.2022 Mazatlan Mazatlan 2-1 HT 0-0 Puebla Puebla MEK
20.10.2021 Puebla Puebla 2-0 HT 0-0 Mazatlan Mazatlan MEK

Puebla 3-2 Mazatlan — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Puebla
3-2
AWAY Mazatlan
1.58 xG 0.40
53% Ball Possession 47%
17 Total Shots 7
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 7
369 Passes 305
86% Pass Accuracy 82%
21 Box Touches 12
20 Crosses 26
3 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Puebla vs Mazatlan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Puebla squeezed past Mazatlan 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match split (37% / 29% / 34%) promised a tight game; Puebla found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 54%.

On the day, Puebla had 53% of the ball to Mazatlan's 47%, shots finished 17-7, expected goals 1.58 to 0.40.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Puebla had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Puebla and 1.33 for Mazatlan.

What was the final score of Puebla vs Mazatlan?

Puebla 3-2 Mazatlan in the Mexico - Primera on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Puebla vs Mazatlan?

Before kick-off our model rated a Puebla win the most likely single outcome at about 37%, with the full match-result split Puebla 37%, draw 29%, Mazatlan 34%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Puebla), BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Puebla) ✓ BTTS Yes
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