Penafiel 1-1 UD Oliveirense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 3 Feb 2024

📅03/02/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
47%
1.82
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
25%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
57%
1.67
Over 2.5
43%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.96
No
55%
1.75
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
32%
2.69
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
19%
4.31
6+ Goals
9%
21.75
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.69 — our 32% vs market 30.9%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
22%
X/2
7%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
12%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
47%
Home Win
51%
-3.8pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.2pp
25%
Away Win
23%
+2.6pp
57%
Under 2.5
56%
+0.8pp
43%
Over 2.5
44%
-0.8pp
45%
BTTS Yes
47%
-1.6pp
55%
BTTS No
53%
+1.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Penafiel EU Bookmakers 55%
Head to Head
AWAY UD Oliveirense EU Bookmakers 26%
-4% / +3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -3%
1.32/1.02 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.09/1.69
-1% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +1% / -13%
52% Ball Possession 48%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
346 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
21.0 Crosses 15.6
2.0 Yellow Cards 3.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Penafiel
1W-2D-3L
AWAY UD Oliveirense
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.50
1.44 xG 0.95
52% Ball Possession 49%
11 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
307 Passes 253
77% Pass Accuracy 76%
22 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 3
27.08.2023 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 3-1 HT 2-1 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
04.03.2023 Penafiel Penafiel 1-1 HT 0-1 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
09.09.2022 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 1-1 HT 1-1 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
03.03.2021 Penafiel Penafiel 1-0 HT 0-0 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense POR2
18.09.2020 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 2-1 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
15.12.2019 UD Oliveirense UD Oliveirense 2-1 HT 0-0 Penafiel Penafiel POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Penafiel
1-1
AWAY UD Oliveirense
0.97 xG 0.49
46% Ball Possession 54%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 5
275 Passes 304
75% Pass Accuracy 75%
11 Crosses 28
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Penafiel vs UD Oliveirense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Penafiel and UD Oliveirense couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. Half-time: 0-0.

Our pre-match lean was Penafiel at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (57%) landed while no to both teams scoring (55%) missed.

On the day, Penafiel had 46% of the ball to UD Oliveirense's 54%, shots finished 16-8, expected goals 0.97 to 0.49.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, UD Oliveirense led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Penafiel and 1.50 for UD Oliveirense.

What was the final score of Penafiel vs UD Oliveirense?

Penafiel 1-1 UD Oliveirense in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Penafiel vs UD Oliveirense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Penafiel win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Penafiel 47%, draw 28%, UD Oliveirense 25%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Penafiel), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Penafiel) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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