Uniao De Leiria 1-1 Porto II — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - 2nd Division, 3 Feb 2024

📅03/02/2024 · 🕒14:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
37%
2.46
Draw
24%
3.18
Away
39%
2.54
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.75
Over 2.5
49%
1.97
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.76
No
54%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
2.96
2-3 Goals
40%
1.76
4-5 Goals
21%
3.9
6+ Goals
9%
17.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.96 — our 30% vs market 27.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
15%
X/X
12%
2/1
7%
2/2
17%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
37%
Home Win
37%
+0.1pp
24%
Draw
28%
-3.8pp
39%
Away Win
36%
+3.8pp
51%
Under 2.5
53%
-1.9pp
49%
Over 2.5
47%
+1.9pp
46%
BTTS Yes
53%
-6.4pp
54%
BTTS No
47%
+6.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Uniao De Leiria EU Bookmakers 41%
Head to Head
AWAY Porto II EU Bookmakers 39%
-17% / -17% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -2% / -2%
1.38/1.90 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.55/0.97
+19% / -31% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -13%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
309 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 332 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
18.6 Crosses 20.3
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Uniao De Leiria
0W-0D-1L
AWAY Porto II
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
1.73 xG 0.83
52% Ball Possession 48%
14 Total Shots 8
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 2
353 Passes 339
83% Pass Accuracy 84%
24 Crosses 13
1 Yellow Cards 1
27.08.2023 Porto II Porto II 2-1 HT 0-0 Uniao De Leiria Uniao De Leiria POR2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Uniao De Leiria
1-1
AWAY Porto II
1.22 xG 0.76
54% Ball Possession 46%
13 Total Shots 6
2 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 1
354 Passes 294
84% Pass Accuracy 77%
30 Crosses 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Uniao De Leiria vs Porto II
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Uniao De Leiria and Porto II couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1.

Our pre-match split (37% / 24% / 39%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Uniao De Leiria had 54% of the ball to Porto II's 46%, shots finished 13-6, expected goals 1.22 to 0.76.

What was the final score of Uniao De Leiria vs Porto II?

Uniao De Leiria 1-1 Porto II in the Portugal - 2nd Division on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Uniao De Leiria vs Porto II?

Before kick-off our model rated an Porto II win the most likely single outcome at about 39%, with the full match-result split Uniao De Leiria 37%, draw 24%, Porto II 39%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Porto II), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Porto II) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
Want to know how this prediction was produced? Read how we price a match →
Want to test this kind of bet across 26 seasons yourself? Open Match Studio →
POR2 More Portugal - 2nd Division
3 Feb 2024
17:00 Torreense vs AVS Analysis →
18:30 Penafiel vs UD Oliveirense Analysis →