Portimonense vs Arouca Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Portimonense v Arouca — Team-Based Signals
Portimonense vs Arouca Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
1-1
HT 0-1
Portimonense
POR
0-2
HT 0-0
Arouca
POR
4-0
HT 2-0
Portimonense
POR
1-0
HT 0-0
Portimonense
POR
1-1
HT 0-0
Arouca
POR
4-1
HT 2-1
Arouca
PORLC
Portimonense 1-2 Arouca — Actual Match Statistics
Arouca nicked a narrow win over Portimonense 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.
Just as the model leaned, our model had Arouca as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.
On the day, Portimonense had 41% of the ball to Arouca's 59%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 2.43 to 1.90 — the balance of chances actually favoured Portimonense.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arouca led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Portimonense and 1.67 for Arouca.
What was the final score of Portimonense vs Arouca?
Portimonense 1-2 Arouca in the Portugal - Premier League on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Portimonense vs Arouca?
Before kick-off our model rated an Arouca win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Portimonense 30%, draw 26%, Arouca 44%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arouca), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.