Portimonense 1-2 Arouca — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Portugal - Premier League, 3 Feb 2024

📅03/02/2024 · 🕒18:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
30%
3.29
Draw
26%
3.35
Away
44%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
1.82
Over 2.5
53%
1.9
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.76
No
44%
1.95
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
3.15
2-3 Goals
43%
1.76
4-5 Goals
22%
3.67
6+ Goals
11%
15.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.36
1/2 EV+ ✗
12%
25.0
1/X
8%
14.0
X/1
12%
7.13
X/2
20%
4.4
X/X
8%
4.59
2/1
5%
34.0
2/2
12%
2.73
2/X
10%
13.6
Value flag · 1/2 at 25.0 — our 12% vs market 1.8%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
30%
Home Win
27%
+3.3pp
26%
Draw
26%
-0.6pp
44%
Away Win
47%
-2.8pp
47%
Under 2.5
51%
-4.4pp
53%
Over 2.5
49%
+4.4pp
56%
BTTS Yes
53%
+3.7pp
44%
BTTS No
47%
-3.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Portimonense EU Bookmakers 30%
Head to Head
AWAY Arouca EU Bookmakers 50%
-17% / -26% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +42% / +42%
1.47/1.63 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.60
-33% / -25% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +24% /
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
285 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 78%
17.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.0
20.7 Crosses 14.0
2.4 Yellow Cards 0.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Portimonense
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Arouca
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.84 xG 1.88
46% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 7
4 Corners 8
292 Passes 352
77% Pass Accuracy 79%
12 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 19
2 Yellow Cards 1
26.08.2023 Arouca Arouca 1-1 HT 0-1 Portimonense Portimonense POR
27.05.2023 Portimonense Portimonense 0-2 HT 0-0 Arouca Arouca POR
20.01.2023 Arouca Arouca 4-0 HT 2-0 Portimonense Portimonense POR
30.04.2022 Arouca Arouca 1-0 HT 0-0 Portimonense Portimonense POR
18.12.2021 Portimonense Portimonense 1-1 HT 0-0 Arouca Arouca POR
28.12.2015 Portimonense Portimonense 4-1 HT 2-1 Arouca Arouca PORLC
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Portimonense
1-2
AWAY Arouca
2.43 xG 1.90
41% Ball Possession 59%
12 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 4
3 Corners 2
201 Passes 344
68% Pass Accuracy 76%
16 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 8
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Portimonense vs Arouca
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Arouca nicked a narrow win over Portimonense 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Arouca as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (56%) came in.

On the day, Portimonense had 41% of the ball to Arouca's 59%, shots finished 12-9, expected goals 2.43 to 1.90 — the balance of chances actually favoured Portimonense.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Arouca led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Portimonense and 1.67 for Arouca.

What was the final score of Portimonense vs Arouca?

Portimonense 1-2 Arouca in the Portugal - Premier League on 03/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Portimonense vs Arouca?

Before kick-off our model rated an Arouca win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Portimonense 30%, draw 26%, Arouca 44%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Arouca), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Arouca) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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