Burnley 0-2 Bournemouth — Result, Statistics & Match Review — England - Premier League, 3 Mar 2024

Burnley
0-2 HT 0-1
Bournemouth
📅03/03/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 1-3 ✗
England - Premier League – 2023/2024

Burnley vs Bournemouth Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
3.17
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
48%
1.96
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.1
Over 2.5
56%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.6
No
46%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
4.12
2-3 Goals
35%
1.85
4-5 Goals
27%
3.05
6+ Goals
14%
9.65
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
5.08
1/2 EV+ ✗
11%
22.7
1/X
10%
13.35
X/1
8%
7.43
X/2
14%
4.66
X/X
11%
5.23
2/1
6%
33.5
2/2
22%
2.64
2/X
5%
13.0
Value flag · 1/2 at 22.7 — our 11% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
28%
-0.7pp
25%
Draw
25%
-0.3pp
48%
Away Win
47%
+0.9pp
44%
Under 2.5
44%
+0.3pp
56%
Over 2.5
56%
-0.3pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.6pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Burnley v Bournemouth — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Burnley EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Bournemouth EU Bookmakers 51%
+0% / -19% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +1%
1.40/1.42 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.86/0.78
-11% / -15% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +59% / -6%
41% Ball Possession 59%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
257 · 71% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 419 · 81%
23.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 30.0
20.9 Crosses 16.0
1.7 Yellow Cards 1.0

Burnley vs Bournemouth Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Burnley
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Bournemouth
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.38 xG 1.31
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 6
271 Passes 318
71% Pass Accuracy 77%
17 Box Touches 25
19 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.10.2023 Bournemouth Bournemouth 2-1 HT 1-1 Burnley Burnley İNP
07.01.2023 Bournemouth Bournemouth 2-4 HT 1-3 Burnley Burnley FAK
09.02.2021 Burnley Burnley 0-2 HT 0-1 Bournemouth Bournemouth FAK
22.02.2020 Burnley Burnley 3-0 HT 0-0 Bournemouth Bournemouth İNP
21.12.2019 Bournemouth Bournemouth 0-1 HT 0-0 Burnley Burnley İNP
06.04.2019 Bournemouth Bournemouth 1-3 HT 1-2 Burnley Burnley İNP

Burnley 0-2 Bournemouth — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Burnley
0-2
AWAY Bournemouth
1.49 xG 1.12
75% Ball Possession 25%
20 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 2
497 Passes 116
82% Pass Accuracy 56%
43 Box Touches 17
26 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Burnley vs Bournemouth
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bournemouth got the better of Burnley 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Bournemouth as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Burnley had 75% of the ball to Bournemouth's 25%, shots finished 20-10, expected goals 1.49 to 1.12.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Burnley had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Burnley and 1.17 for Bournemouth.

What was the final score of Burnley vs Bournemouth?

Burnley 0-2 Bournemouth in the England - Premier League on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Burnley vs Bournemouth?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bournemouth win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Burnley 27%, draw 25%, Bournemouth 48%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bournemouth) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bournemouth) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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