Manchester City vs Manchester United Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Manchester City v Manchester United — Team-Based Signals
Manchester City vs Manchester United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
0-3
HT 0-1
Manchester City
İNP
2-1
HT 1-1
Manchester United
FAK
2-1
HT 0-0
Manchester City
İNP
6-3
HT 4-0
Manchester United
İNP
4-1
HT 2-1
Manchester United
İNP
0-2
HT 0-2
Manchester City
İNP
Manchester City 3-1 Manchester United — Actual Match Statistics
Manchester City got the better of Manchester United 3-1. It was 0-1 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.
As we said in the preview, our model had Manchester City as the likeliest winner at 58%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (65%), and that read landed as well.
On the day, Manchester City had 73% of the ball to Manchester United's 27%, shots finished 27-3, expected goals 3.33 to 0.25.
For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Manchester City had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Manchester City and 1.17 for Manchester United.
What was the final score of Manchester City vs Manchester United?
Manchester City 3-1 Manchester United in the England - Premier League on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Manchester City vs Manchester United?
Before kick-off our model rated a Manchester City win the most likely single outcome at about 58%, with the full match-result split Manchester City 58%, draw 17%, Manchester United 25%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Manchester City), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.