Hoffenheim 2-1 Werder Bremen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 3 Mar 2024

Hoffenheim
2-1 HT 2-0
Werder Bremen
📅03/03/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✓
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
46%
1.9
Draw
24%
3.72
Away
30%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.51
Over 2.5
61%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
59%
1.46
No
41%
2.53
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
5.75
2-3 Goals
36%
2.03
4-5 Goals
31%
2.62
6+ Goals
13%
6.06
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
2.49
1/2
7%
30.5
1/X
10%
13.05
X/1
15%
4.83
X/2
11%
7.81
X/X
10%
6.17
2/1 EV+ ✗
9%
20.4
2/2
11%
4.82
2/X
5%
13.2
Value flag · 2/1 at 20.4 — our 9% vs market 2.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
46%
Home Win
48%
-2.6pp
24%
Draw
23%
+0.9pp
30%
Away Win
28%
+1.7pp
39%
Under 2.5
36%
+2.8pp
61%
Over 2.5
64%
-2.8pp
59%
BTTS Yes
64%
-5.6pp
41%
BTTS No
36%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Hoffenheim v Werder Bremen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hoffenheim EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Werder Bremen EU Bookmakers 32%
-7% / -23% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +2%
1.74/1.35 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.46/1.41
-10% / -18% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / -1%
56% Ball Possession 44%
16 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
384 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 74%
28.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.3
20.9 Crosses 17.4
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.7

Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hoffenheim
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Werder Bremen
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
1.59 xG 0.71
48% Ball Possession 52%
12 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
344 Passes 375
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
25 Box Touches 20
18 Crosses 18
3 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
07.10.2023 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 2-3 HT 1-2 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
02.04.2023 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 1-2 HT 0-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
07.10.2022 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 1-2 HT 1-1 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
21.02.2021 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim 4-0 HT 2-0 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen AL1
25.10.2020 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 1-1 HT 1-1 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1
26.01.2020 Werder Bremen Werder Bremen 0-3 HT 0-0 Hoffenheim Hoffenheim AL1

Hoffenheim 2-1 Werder Bremen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hoffenheim
2-1
AWAY Werder Bremen
1.70 xG 1.29
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 18
7 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 3
344 Passes 395
79% Pass Accuracy 82%
26 Box Touches 31
14 Crosses 24
4 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hoffenheim squeezed past Werder Bremen 2-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Hoffenheim as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (59%) came in.

On the day, Hoffenheim had 47% of the ball to Werder Bremen's 53%, shots finished 14-18, expected goals 1.70 to 1.29.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Hoffenheim had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Hoffenheim and 1.00 for Werder Bremen.

What was the final score of Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen?

Hoffenheim 2-1 Werder Bremen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hoffenheim vs Werder Bremen?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hoffenheim win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Hoffenheim 46%, draw 24%, Werder Bremen 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hoffenheim), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Hoffenheim) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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