Köln 0-2 Bayer Leverkusen — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - Bundesliga, 3 Mar 2024

Köln
0-2 HT 0-1
Bayer Leverkusen
📅03/03/2024 · 🕒17:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✗ 2nd Score 2-1 ✗
Germany - Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
5.91
Draw
22%
4.49
Away
53%
1.4
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
44%
2.21
Over 2.5
56%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
1.88
No
48%
1.82
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
4.36
2-3 Goals
40%
1.88
4-5 Goals
25%
2.96
6+ Goals
13%
8.83
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
11.4
1/2
8%
21.85
1/X
6%
19.5
X/1
8%
14.55
X/2
18%
3.56
X/X
10%
6.66
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
34.5
2/2
27%
1.7
2/X
6%
18.85
Value flag · 2/1 at 34.5 — our 8% vs market 1.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
14%
+11.3pp
21%
Draw
19%
+2.4pp
53%
Away Win
67%
-13.7pp
44%
Under 2.5
41%
+2.2pp
56%
Over 2.5
59%
-2.2pp
52%
BTTS Yes
49%
+3.3pp
48%
BTTS No
51%
-3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Köln v Bayer Leverkusen — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Köln EU Bookmakers 17%
Head to Head
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen EU Bookmakers 71%
+2% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +10%
1.10/2.09 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.56/0.89
-22% / -13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +36%
33% Ball Possession 67%
10 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 6
228 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 598 · 87%
18.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 29.5
20.4 Crosses 17.7
2.1 Yellow Cards 1.8

Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Köln
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.17 xG 1.78
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
350 Passes 390
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Box Touches 24
18 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
08.10.2023 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 HT 2-0 Köln Köln AL1
05.05.2023 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 1-2 HT 1-2 Köln Köln AL1
09.11.2022 Köln Köln 1-2 HT 1-0 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
13.03.2022 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 0-1 HT 0-0 Köln Köln AL1
24.10.2021 Köln Köln 2-2 HT 0-2 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen AL1
17.04.2021 Bayer Leverkusen Bayer Leverkusen 3-0 HT 1-0 Köln Köln AL1

Köln 0-2 Bayer Leverkusen — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Köln
0-2
AWAY Bayer Leverkusen
1.00 xG 1.59
22% Ball Possession 78%
6 Total Shots 17
0 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 9
172 Passes 763
72% Pass Accuracy 92%
11 Box Touches 44
8 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bayer Leverkusen beat Köln 2-0 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

As we said in the preview, our model had Bayer Leverkusen as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. The goals read — over 2.5 goals (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Köln had 22% of the ball to Bayer Leverkusen's 78%, shots finished 6-17, expected goals 1.00 to 1.59.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Bayer Leverkusen led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Köln and 1.83 for Bayer Leverkusen.

What was the final score of Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Köln 0-2 Bayer Leverkusen in the Germany - Bundesliga on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Köln vs Bayer Leverkusen?

Before kick-off our model rated an Bayer Leverkusen win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Köln 25%, draw 21%, Bayer Leverkusen 53%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) — while Over 2.5, BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Bayer Leverkusen) ✗ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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