Brisbane Roar 3-2 Melbourne Victory — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Australia - A-League, 3 Mar 2024

Brisbane Roar
3-2 HT 1-1
Melbourne Victory
📅03/03/2024 · 🕒09:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Australia - A-League – 2023/2024

Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne Victory Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
28%
3.17
Draw
23%
3.64
Away
49%
1.91
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
50%
2.23
Over 2.5
50%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
46%
1.55
No
54%
2.29
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
4.71
2-3 Goals
39%
1.91
4-5 Goals
22%
2.84
6+ Goals
9%
7.91
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.71 — our 30% vs market 16.4%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
5.05
1/2
8%
21.35
1/X
8%
13.65
X/1
11%
7.64
X/2
17%
4.62
X/X
8%
5.74
2/1
6%
32.5
2/2
24%
2.53
2/X
7%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
28%
Home Win
28%
+0.5pp
23%
Draw
24%
-1.2pp
49%
Away Win
48%
+0.7pp
50%
Under 2.5
41%
+9.4pp
50%
Over 2.5
59%
-9.4pp
46%
BTTS Yes
60%
-14.7pp
54%
BTTS No
40%
+14.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Brisbane Roar v Melbourne Victory — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Brisbane Roar EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Melbourne Victory EU Bookmakers 52%
-4% / -8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +5%
1.49/1.34 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.50/1.31
-13% / +9% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -11% / +51%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
283 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 393 · 80%
26.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 31.4
17.2 Crosses 17.5
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2

Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne Victory Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Brisbane Roar
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Melbourne Victory
0.50 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
0.98 xG 1.41
44% Ball Possession 56%
13 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
338 Passes 447
78% Pass Accuracy 84%
21 Box Touches 25
16 Crosses 24
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
29.04.2023 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 0-1 HT 0-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
06.01.2023 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 0-1 HT 0-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
29.10.2022 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 0-0 HT 0-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
25.04.2022 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar 1-1 HT 0-0 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory AVUS
12.04.2022 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 0-0 HT 0-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS
28.11.2021 Melbourne Victory Melbourne Victory 3-0 HT 2-0 Brisbane Roar Brisbane Roar AVUS

Brisbane Roar 3-2 Melbourne Victory — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Brisbane Roar
3-2
AWAY Melbourne Victory
2.24 xG 0.91
54% Ball Possession 46%
15 Total Shots 11
8 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 4
440 Passes 350
87% Pass Accuracy 82%
28 Box Touches 17
16 Crosses 16
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne Victory
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Brisbane Roar edged past Melbourne Victory 3-2. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Melbourne Victory at 49%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 50% and both teams to score was close to even at 46%.

On the day, Brisbane Roar had 54% of the ball to Melbourne Victory's 46%, shots finished 15-11, expected goals 2.24 to 0.91 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Brisbane Roar's control.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Brisbane Roar had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 0.50 goals for Brisbane Roar and 0.67 for Melbourne Victory.

What was the final score of Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne Victory?

Brisbane Roar 3-2 Melbourne Victory in the Australia - A-League on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Brisbane Roar vs Melbourne Victory?

Before kick-off our model rated an Melbourne Victory win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Brisbane Roar 28%, draw 23%, Melbourne Victory 49%. The final score 3-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Melbourne Victory) ✗ BTTS No
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3 Mar 2024
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