Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide United Prediction — Model Probabilities
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Wellington Phoenix v Adelaide United — Team-Based Signals
Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide United Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings
2-0
HT 1-0
Wellington Phoenix
AVUS
5-1
HT 2-0
Wellington Phoenix
AVUS
3-1
HT 2-1
Adelaide United
AVUS
1-1
HT 0-0
Adelaide United
AVUS
1-1
HT 1-0
Adelaide United
AVUS
Wellington Phoenix 3-2 Adelaide United — Actual Match Statistics
Wellington Phoenix squeezed past Adelaide United 3-2. Half-time: 1-0. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.
As we said in the preview, our model had Wellington Phoenix as the likeliest winner at 46%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (55%), and both reads landed as well.
On the day, Wellington Phoenix had 49% of the ball to Adelaide United's 51%, shots finished 15-23, expected goals 2.53 to 2.60.
Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Adelaide United led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Wellington Phoenix and 2.00 for Adelaide United.
What was the final score of Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide United?
Wellington Phoenix 3-2 Adelaide United in the Australia - A-League on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Wellington Phoenix vs Adelaide United?
Before kick-off our model rated a Wellington Phoenix win the most likely single outcome at about 46%, with the full match-result split Wellington Phoenix 46%, draw 23%, Adelaide United 31%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Wellington Phoenix), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.