Itapirense 4-0 Matonense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Paulista A3, 3 Mar 2024

📅03/03/2024 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
49%
2.02
Draw
25%
3.54
Away
26%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under Pick
52%
Over
48%
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
No
52%
Total Goals
0-1
25%
2-3
42%
4-5
22%
6+
11%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
4%
1/X
4%
X/1
15%
X/2
15%
X/X
17%
2/1
4%
2/2
7%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
Under 2.5 — 52%
Fair price · no betting value
Every market fairly priced — no value edge at these odds. Our Pick = the most likely outcome, not a value bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Selection The Market
49%
Home Win
46%
+3.2pp
25%
Draw
25%
+0.1pp
26%
Away Win
30%
-3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — the market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Itapirense The Market 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Matonense The Market 33%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -42% / -42%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
/ Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -35% / -52%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
340 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Itapirense
4-0
AWAY Matonense
46% Ball Possession 54%
25 Total Shots 6
10 Shots on Target 0
4 Corners 0
POST-MATCH Itapirense vs Matonense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Itapirense ran out comfortable winners over Matonense 4-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Itapirense as the likeliest winner at 49%, and the 4-0 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Itapirense had 46% of the ball to Matonense's 54%, shots finished 25-6.

What was the final score of Itapirense vs Matonense?

Itapirense 4-0 Matonense in the Brazil - Paulista A3 on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Itapirense vs Matonense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Itapirense win the most likely single outcome at about 49%, with the full match-result split Itapirense 49%, draw 25%, Matonense 26%. The final score 4-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Itapirense), BTTS No — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Itapirense) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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