Osijek 1-1 Dinamo Zagreb — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Croatia - 1. HNL, 3 Mar 2024

Osijek
1-1 HT 1-0
Dinamo Zagreb
📅03/03/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Croatia - 1. HNL – 2023/2024

Osijek vs Dinamo Zagreb Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
26%
3.75
Draw
27%
3.28
Away
47%
1.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.68
Over 2.5
40%
2.07
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
1.95
No
60%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
36%
2.76
2-3 Goals
36%
1.77
4-5 Goals
19%
4.24
6+ Goals
9%
20.9
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.76 — our 36% vs market 30.3%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
7%
1/2
5%
1/X
5%
X/1
13%
X/2
15%
X/X
18%
2/1
6%
2/2
26%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
26%
Home Win
23%
+3.2pp
27%
Draw
27%
+0.5pp
47%
Away Win
50%
-3.6pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+4.2pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-4.2pp
40%
BTTS Yes
47%
-7.4pp
60%
BTTS No
53%
+7.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Osijek v Dinamo Zagreb — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Osijek EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Dinamo Zagreb EU Bookmakers 55%
+17% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -7% / -14%
0.89/1.08 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.01
-21% / +86% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -21% / +26%
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
280 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 303 · 76%
14.9 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.9
18.8 Crosses 15.7
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.8

Osijek vs Dinamo Zagreb Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Osijek
1W-2D-3L
AWAY Dinamo Zagreb
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
0.77 xG 1.44
39% Ball Possession 61%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
240 Passes 432
74% Pass Accuracy 82%
12 Box Touches 27
12 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 1
The Meetings
25.11.2023 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 2-1 HT 1-0 Osijek Osijek HIR
03.09.2023 Osijek Osijek 2-3 HT 1-0 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
07.05.2023 Osijek Osijek 0-0 HT 0-0 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
05.03.2023 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 1-1 HT 0-0 Osijek Osijek HIR
29.10.2022 Osijek Osijek 1-0 HT 0-0 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb HIR
20.08.2022 Dinamo Zagreb Dinamo Zagreb 5-2 HT 1-1 Osijek Osijek HIR

Osijek 1-1 Dinamo Zagreb — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Osijek
1-1
AWAY Dinamo Zagreb
1.25 xG 1.17
49% Ball Possession 51%
14 Total Shots 24
5 Shots on Target 6
2 Corners 15
303 Passes 285
77% Pass Accuracy 76%
19 Box Touches 40
14 Crosses 45
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Osijek vs Dinamo Zagreb
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Osijek and Dinamo Zagreb shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Dinamo Zagreb at 47%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (60%) landed while no to both teams scoring (60%) missed.

On the day, Osijek had 49% of the ball to Dinamo Zagreb's 51%, shots finished 14-24, expected goals 1.25 to 1.17.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Dinamo Zagreb led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Osijek and 1.83 for Dinamo Zagreb.

What was the final score of Osijek vs Dinamo Zagreb?

Osijek 1-1 Dinamo Zagreb in the Croatia - 1. HNL on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Osijek vs Dinamo Zagreb?

Before kick-off our model rated an Dinamo Zagreb win the most likely single outcome at about 47%, with the full match-result split Osijek 26%, draw 27%, Dinamo Zagreb 47%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Dinamo Zagreb) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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