Nafta 1-3 Gorica — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Slovenia - 2.SNL, 3 Mar 2024

Nafta
1-3 HT 0-1
Gorica
📅03/03/2024 · 🕒15:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 2nd Score 2-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.46
Draw
30%
3.72
Away
41%
1.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.0
Over 2.5
53%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
55%
1.7
No
45%
2.03
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
20%
2-3 Goals
51%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
7%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
1/2
6%
1/X
8%
X/1
17%
X/2
11%
X/X
14%
2/1
7%
2/2
24%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Away Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
25%
+3.4pp
30%
Draw
23%
+6.9pp
41%
Away Win
52%
-10.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
46%
+0.3pp
53%
Over 2.5
54%
-0.3pp
55%
BTTS Yes
55%
+0.7pp
45%
BTTS No
45%
-0.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Nafta EU Bookmakers 29%
Head to Head
AWAY Gorica EU Bookmakers 56%
-46% / -46% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -9% / -9%
2.00/3.00 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.93/0.50
+78% / -48% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -45% / +133%
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 6
271 · 74% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 310 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
4.0 Yellow Cards 1.8
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Nafta
1W-0D-2L
AWAY Gorica
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
53% Ball Possession 47%
12 Total Shots 12
6 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 1
13.08.2023 Gorica Gorica 3-4 HT 2-1 Nafta Nafta SLVN2
22.04.2022 Nafta Nafta 2-3 HT 0-1 Gorica Gorica SLVN2
01.12.2021 Gorica Gorica 1-0 HT 0-0 Nafta Nafta SLVN2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Nafta
1-3
AWAY Gorica
40% Ball Possession 60%
4 Total Shots 17
2 Shots on Target 9
2 Corners 3
4 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Nafta vs Gorica
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gorica beat Nafta 3-1 away from home. Half-time: 0-1.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Gorica as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals side of the card held up too — both teams to score (55%) came in.

On the day, Nafta had 40% of the ball to Gorica's 60%, shots finished 4-17.

For context: across their last 3 meetings in our records, Gorica led the recent series with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Nafta and 2.33 for Gorica.

What was the final score of Nafta vs Gorica?

Nafta 1-3 Gorica in the Slovenia - 2.SNL on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Nafta vs Gorica?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gorica win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Nafta 29%, draw 30%, Gorica 41%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gorica), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Gorica) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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