Başakşehir FK 1-0 Samsunspor — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Turkey - Super League, 3 Mar 2024

Başakşehir FK
1-0 HT 0-0
Samsunspor
📅03/03/2024 · 🕒13:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 0-1 ✗
Turkey - Super League – 2023/2024

Başakşehir FK vs Samsunspor Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
41%
2.18
Draw
27%
3.18
Away
32%
3.02
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
1.71
Over 2.5
39%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
1.85
No
53%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
31%
2.8
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
20%
4.17
6+ Goals
9%
20.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.8 — our 31% vs market 29.8%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
3.16
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
8%
13.45
X/1
14%
4.72
X/2
13%
6.36
X/X
10%
4.17
2/1
5%
28.5
2/2
13%
4.82
2/X
9%
13.75
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
41%
Home Win
42%
-1.0pp
27%
Draw
28%
-0.9pp
32%
Away Win
30%
+1.9pp
61%
Under 2.5
55%
+6.5pp
39%
Over 2.5
45%
-6.4pp
47%
BTTS Yes
50%
-3.1pp
53%
BTTS No
50%
+3.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Başakşehir FK v Samsunspor — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Başakşehir FK EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Samsunspor EU Bookmakers 33%
-1% / +11% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -28% / -33%
1.37/1.21 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.82/1.12
+1% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -55% / -12%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
333 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 76%
19.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.2
17.8 Crosses 19.1
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4

Başakşehir FK vs Samsunspor Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Başakşehir FK
4W-1D-1L
AWAY Samsunspor
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
0.51 xG 0.81
60% Ball Possession 40%
12 Total Shots 14
3 Shots on Target 3
2 Corners 6
428 Passes 244
86% Pass Accuracy 78%
14 Box Touches 23
3 Crosses 25
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
22.10.2023 Samsunspor Samsunspor 0-0 HT 0-0 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL
11.01.2014 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK 1-3 HT 1-1 Samsunspor Samsunspor T1L
17.08.2013 Samsunspor Samsunspor 0-1 HT 0-0 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK T1L
29.01.2012 Samsunspor Samsunspor 2-4 HT 0-1 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK TSL
16.10.2011 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK 3-0 HT 0-0 Samsunspor Samsunspor TSL
13.01.2009 Başakşehir FK Başakşehir FK 1-0 HT 0-0 Samsunspor Samsunspor BİL

Başakşehir FK 1-0 Samsunspor — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Başakşehir FK
1-0
AWAY Samsunspor
0.90 xG 0.74
67% Ball Possession 33%
12 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 1
5 Corners 5
511 Passes 196
87% Pass Accuracy 71%
20 Box Touches 13
24 Crosses 15
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Başakşehir FK vs Samsunspor
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Başakşehir FK squeezed past Samsunspor 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Başakşehir FK as the likeliest winner at 41%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Başakşehir FK had 67% of the ball to Samsunspor's 33%, shots finished 12-8, expected goals 0.90 to 0.74.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Başakşehir FK had the better of it with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Başakşehir FK and 0.83 for Samsunspor.

What was the final score of Başakşehir FK vs Samsunspor?

Başakşehir FK 1-0 Samsunspor in the Turkey - Super League on 03/03/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Başakşehir FK vs Samsunspor?

Before kick-off our model rated a Başakşehir FK win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Başakşehir FK 41%, draw 27%, Samsunspor 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Başakşehir FK), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Başakşehir FK) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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