Ajax II 0-2 FC Eindhoven — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Netherlands - Eerste Divisie, 3 Mar 2025

📅03/03/2025 · 🕒22:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.09
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
30%
2.94
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.1
Over 2.5
48%
1.67
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.56
No
50%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
27%
3.87
2-3 Goals
40%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
2.91
6+ Goals
9%
9.07
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.87 — our 27% vs market 19.5%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
2.97
1/2
7%
29.0
1/X
7%
12.55
X/1 EV+ ✗
20%
5.17
X/2
12%
6.78
X/X
13%
5.22
2/1
5%
23.0
2/2
11%
4.51
2/X
6%
13.0
Value flag · X/1 at 5.17 — our 20% vs market 15.0%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
44%
+0.5pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.6pp
29%
Away Win
30%
-1.1pp
52%
Under 2.5
44%
+8.3pp
48%
Over 2.5
56%
-8.3pp
50%
BTTS Yes
60%
-10.5pp
50%
BTTS No
40%
+10.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ajax II EU Bookmakers 48%
Head to Head
AWAY FC Eindhoven EU Bookmakers 34%
-2% / -18% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +18%
1.37/1.60 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.40/1.01
+3% / +0% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +12% / +22%
50% Ball Possession 50%
14 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
323 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 336 · 77%
26.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 19.4
12.3 Crosses 17.9
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.0
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ajax II
1W-4D-1L
AWAY FC Eindhoven
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.83
1.71 xG 1.60
61% Ball Possession 39%
16 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 5
8 Corners 5
486 Passes 268
85% Pass Accuracy 73%
32 Box Touches 21
14 Crosses 17
1 Yellow Cards 1
24.08.2024 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven 0-3 HT 0-1 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
23.12.2023 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven 2-2 HT 1-1 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
25.09.2023 Ajax II Ajax II 1-1 HT 1-0 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven HOL2
10.03.2023 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven 5-1 HT 2-1 Ajax II Ajax II HOL2
06.01.2023 Ajax II Ajax II 1-1 HT 0-0 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven HOL2
18.03.2022 Ajax II Ajax II 2-2 HT 1-1 FC Eindhoven FC Eindhoven HOL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ajax II
0-2
AWAY FC Eindhoven
0.48 xG 1.18
45% Ball Possession 55%
7 Total Shots 17
3 Shots on Target 6
1 Corners 13
348 Passes 422
85% Pass Accuracy 86%
15 Box Touches 28
10 Crosses 27
0 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Ajax II vs FC Eindhoven
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

FC Eindhoven saw off Ajax II 2-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Ajax II at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Ajax II had 45% of the ball to FC Eindhoven's 55%, shots finished 7-17, expected goals 0.48 to 1.18.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 1 apiece, 4 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Ajax II and 1.83 for FC Eindhoven.

What was the final score of Ajax II vs FC Eindhoven?

Ajax II 0-2 FC Eindhoven in the Netherlands - Eerste Divisie on 03/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ajax II vs FC Eindhoven?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ajax II win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Ajax II 44%, draw 26%, FC Eindhoven 29%. The final score 0-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Ajax II) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Ajax II) ✓ Under 2.5
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