Rakow Czestochowa 3-1 Lechia Gdansk — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 3 Mar 2025

Rakow Czestochowa
3-1 HT 2-0
Lechia Gdansk
📅03/03/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Rakow Czestochowa vs Lechia Gdansk Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
50%
1.42
Draw
25%
4.19
Away
25%
6.38
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.97
Over 2.5
48%
1.75
Both Teams to Score
Yes
47%
2.03
No
53%
1.7
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
30%
3.39
2-3 Goals
39%
1.75
4-5 Goals
20%
3.18
6+ Goals
11%
11.3
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.39 — our 30% vs market 22.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
24%
1.67
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
18.3
X/1
18%
3.76
X/2
9%
14.9
X/X
12%
6.08
2/1
8%
23.4
2/2
10%
13.25
2/X
7%
21.4
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
50%
Home Win
66%
-16.2pp
25%
Draw
21%
+4.4pp
25%
Away Win
13%
+11.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
47%
+5.2pp
48%
Over 2.5
53%
-5.2pp
47%
BTTS Yes
45%
+1.4pp
53%
BTTS No
55%
-1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Rakow Czestochowa v Lechia Gdansk — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Rakow Czestochowa EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY Lechia Gdansk EU Bookmakers 16%
+0% / -16% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -7%
1.78/0.76 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.95/1.88
-9% / +41% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -14% / -12%
58% Ball Possession 42%
16 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
7 Corners 3
444 · 84% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 243 · 73%
29.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.2
20.7 Crosses 14.9
1.8 Yellow Cards 2.2

Rakow Czestochowa vs Lechia Gdansk Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Rakow Czestochowa
4W-0D-2L
AWAY Lechia Gdansk
2.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.59 xG 0.73
49% Ball Possession 51%
16 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 3
310 Passes 331
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
31 Box Touches 11
19 Crosses 14
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
23.08.2024 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 1-2 HT 0-0 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL
28.04.2023 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 4-0 HT 1-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
15.10.2022 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 0-3 HT 0-2 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL
21.05.2022 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 3-0 HT 2-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
04.12.2021 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 3-1 HT 0-1 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL
13.02.2021 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 0-1 HT 0-1 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL

Rakow Czestochowa 3-1 Lechia Gdansk — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Rakow Czestochowa
3-1
AWAY Lechia Gdansk
2.22 xG 0.90
47% Ball Possession 53%
9 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 3
1 Corners 3
280 Passes 317
78% Pass Accuracy 79%
22 Box Touches 35
13 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 5
POST-MATCH Rakow Czestochowa vs Lechia Gdansk
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rakow Czestochowa got the better of Lechia Gdansk 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Rakow Czestochowa as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 47%.

On the day, Rakow Czestochowa had 47% of the ball to Lechia Gdansk's 53%, shots finished 9-16, expected goals 2.22 to 0.90.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rakow Czestochowa had the better of it with 4 wins. Those games averaged 2.17 goals for Rakow Czestochowa and 0.83 for Lechia Gdansk.

What was the final score of Rakow Czestochowa vs Lechia Gdansk?

Rakow Czestochowa 3-1 Lechia Gdansk in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 03/03/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Rakow Czestochowa vs Lechia Gdansk?

Before kick-off our model rated a Rakow Czestochowa win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Rakow Czestochowa 50%, draw 25%, Lechia Gdansk 25%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rakow Czestochowa) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Rakow Czestochowa) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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