Lechia Gdansk 1-2 Rakow Czestochowa — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 23 Aug 2024

Lechia Gdansk
1-2 HT 0-0
Rakow Czestochowa
📅23/08/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-2 ✓ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2024/2025

Lechia Gdansk vs Rakow Czestochowa Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
29%
3.75
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
48%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.0
Over 2.5
53%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.73
No
50%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
3.74
2-3 Goals
40%
1.83
4-5 Goals
25%
3.25
6+ Goals
10%
11.35
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
11%
6.57
1/2 EV+ ✗
8%
22.3
1/X
5%
15.35
X/1
11%
8.79
X/2
18%
4.04
X/X
9%
5.45
2/1
7%
34.5
2/2
22%
2.26
2/X
9%
14.85
Value flag · 1/2 at 22.3 — our 8% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
29%
Home Win
23%
+5.5pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.3pp
48%
Away Win
53%
-5.3pp
47%
Under 2.5
46%
+1.2pp
53%
Over 2.5
54%
-1.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
54%
-3.4pp
50%
BTTS No
46%
+3.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Lechia Gdansk v Rakow Czestochowa — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Lechia Gdansk EU Bookmakers 27%
Head to Head
AWAY Rakow Czestochowa EU Bookmakers 57%
+6% / +12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -5% / -7%
1.15/1.73 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.64/0.84
-23% / +11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -6% / +50%
45% Ball Possession 55%
10 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 6
272 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 355 · 80%
17.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 28.9
20.3 Crosses 21.9
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.1

Lechia Gdansk vs Rakow Czestochowa Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Lechia Gdansk
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Rakow Czestochowa
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
0.71 xG 1.81
49% Ball Possession 51%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 8
2 Corners 6
332 Passes 334
77% Pass Accuracy 78%
10 Box Touches 34
14 Crosses 20
3 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
28.04.2023 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 4-0 HT 1-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
15.10.2022 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 0-3 HT 0-2 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL
21.05.2022 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 3-0 HT 2-0 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
04.12.2021 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 3-1 HT 0-1 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL
13.02.2021 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa 0-1 HT 0-1 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk POL
29.08.2020 Lechia Gdansk Lechia Gdansk 1-3 HT 1-0 Rakow Czestochowa Rakow Czestochowa POL

Lechia Gdansk 1-2 Rakow Czestochowa — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Lechia Gdansk
1-2
AWAY Rakow Czestochowa
0.33 xG 0.90
51% Ball Possession 49%
8 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 2
272 Passes 265
77% Pass Accuracy 77%
14 Box Touches 19
15 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Lechia Gdansk vs Rakow Czestochowa
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Rakow Czestochowa nicked a narrow win over Lechia Gdansk 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Rakow Czestochowa as the likeliest winner at 48%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 53% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Lechia Gdansk had 51% of the ball to Rakow Czestochowa's 49%, shots finished 8-14, expected goals 0.33 to 0.90.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Rakow Czestochowa led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Lechia Gdansk and 2.33 for Rakow Czestochowa.

What was the final score of Lechia Gdansk vs Rakow Czestochowa?

Lechia Gdansk 1-2 Rakow Czestochowa in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 23/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Lechia Gdansk vs Rakow Czestochowa?

Before kick-off our model rated an Rakow Czestochowa win the most likely single outcome at about 48%, with the full match-result split Lechia Gdansk 29%, draw 23%, Rakow Czestochowa 48%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Rakow Czestochowa), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Rakow Czestochowa) ✓ Over 2.5
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