Moroka Swallows 1-1 Orlando Pirates — Result, Statistics & Match Review — South Afrika - Premier League, 3 Apr 2024

Moroka Swallows
1-1 HT 1-0
Orlando Pirates
📅03/04/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 ✗ 2nd Score 0-0 ✗
South Afrika - Premier League – 2023/2024

Moroka Swallows vs Orlando Pirates Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
17%
4.71
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
54%
1.68
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
64%
1.56
Over 2.5
36%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
38%
2.29
No
62%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
38%
2.37
2-3 Goals
37%
1.78
4-5 Goals
16%
5.1
6+ Goals
9%
31.0
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.37 — our 38% vs market 35.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
5%
1/2
8%
1/X
6%
X/1
8%
X/2
17%
X/X
19%
2/1
5%
2/2
29%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
17%
Home Win
18%
-1.1pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.1pp
54%
Away Win
56%
-2.0pp
64%
Under 2.5
60%
+3.3pp
36%
Over 2.5
40%
-3.3pp
38%
BTTS Yes
40%
-1.4pp
62%
BTTS No
60%
+1.4pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Moroka Swallows v Orlando Pirates — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Moroka Swallows EU Bookmakers 21%
Head to Head
AWAY Orlando Pirates EU Bookmakers 60%
-9% / -10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -13% / -18%
0.79/1.30 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/0.74
+41% / -37% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -48% / +14%
42% Ball Possession 58%
8 Total Shots 13
3 Shots on Target 5
3 Corners 5
172 · 63% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 410 · 81%
14.2 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 20.6
17.0 Crosses 21.8
1.5 Yellow Cards 1.7

Moroka Swallows vs Orlando Pirates Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Moroka Swallows
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Orlando Pirates
0.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.63 xG 1.36
44% Ball Possession 56%
10 Total Shots 10
2 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 3
250 Passes 338
75% Pass Accuracy 80%
14 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
05.12.2023 Orlando Pirates Orlando Pirates 2-0 HT 1-0 Moroka Swallows Moroka Swallows GAFPSL
03.03.2023 Moroka Swallows Moroka Swallows 1-4 HT 0-1 Orlando Pirates Orlando Pirates GAFPSL
06.08.2022 Orlando Pirates Orlando Pirates 1-0 HT 1-0 Moroka Swallows Moroka Swallows GAFPSL
14.12.2021 Moroka Swallows Moroka Swallows 1-1 HT 1-1 Orlando Pirates Orlando Pirates GAFPSL
11.09.2021 Orlando Pirates Orlando Pirates 1-0 HT 0-0 Moroka Swallows Moroka Swallows GAFPSL
14.08.2021 Orlando Pirates Orlando Pirates 1-2 HT 1-2 Moroka Swallows Moroka Swallows GAF8K

Moroka Swallows 1-1 Orlando Pirates — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Moroka Swallows
1-1
AWAY Orlando Pirates
0.72 xG 1.59
24% Ball Possession 76%
5 Total Shots 18
2 Shots on Target 3
0 Corners 15
117 Passes 557
57% Pass Accuracy 87%
8 Box Touches 31
2 Crosses 33
1 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Moroka Swallows vs Orlando Pirates
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Moroka Swallows and Orlando Pirates couldn't be separated, finishing 1-1. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match lean was Orlando Pirates at 54%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. On goals, under 2.5 goals (64%) landed while no to both teams scoring (62%) missed.

On the day, Moroka Swallows had 24% of the ball to Orlando Pirates's 76%, shots finished 5-18, expected goals 0.72 to 1.59.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Orlando Pirates led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.67 goals for Moroka Swallows and 1.67 for Orlando Pirates.

What was the final score of Moroka Swallows vs Orlando Pirates?

Moroka Swallows 1-1 Orlando Pirates in the South Afrika - Premier League on 03/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Moroka Swallows vs Orlando Pirates?

Before kick-off our model rated an Orlando Pirates win the most likely single outcome at about 54%, with the full match-result split Moroka Swallows 17%, draw 29%, Orlando Pirates 54%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Orlando Pirates), BTTS No went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Orlando Pirates) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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