Metta / LU Riga 0-1 BFC Daugavpils — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 3 Apr 2024

📅03/04/2024 · 🕒17:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
2.84
Draw
22%
3.35
Away
36%
2.16
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.71
Over 2.5
47%
2.03
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.85
No
55%
1.85
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
27%
2-3 Goals
42%
4-5 Goals
21%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
19%
1/2
9%
1/X
6%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
9%
2/1
9%
2/2
18%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
32%
+10.1pp
23%
Draw
26%
-3.7pp
36%
Away Win
42%
-6.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
55%
-1.3pp
47%
Over 2.5
45%
+1.3pp
45%
BTTS Yes
50%
-4.7pp
55%
BTTS No
50%
+4.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Metta / LU Riga EU Bookmakers 35%
Head to Head
AWAY BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 46%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +8%
1.23/0.80 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.89/1.01
-6% / -6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +31% / +0%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 12
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 6
249 · 72% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 254 · 73%
21.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 35.3
21.2 Crosses 21.5
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Metta / LU Riga
1W-2D-3L
AWAY BFC Daugavpils
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.19 xG 1.76
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 14
6 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
266 Passes 210
70% Pass Accuracy 66%
20 Box Touches 27
18 Crosses 22
3 Yellow Cards 3
29.09.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 4-2 HT 1-2 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga LET
10.07.2023 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga 0-0 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
18.05.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 1-1 HT 0-0 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga LET
07.04.2023 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga 3-2 HT 2-1 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
06.11.2022 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga 2-3 HT 0-1 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
27.08.2022 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 3-2 HT 2-2 Metta / LU Riga Metta / LU Riga LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Metta / LU Riga
0-1
AWAY BFC Daugavpils
0.62 xG 0.81
59% Ball Possession 41%
8 Total Shots 14
1 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 3
395 Passes 273
79% Pass Accuracy 78%
12 Box Touches 19
29 Crosses 12
1 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Metta / LU Riga vs BFC Daugavpils
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BFC Daugavpils squeezed past Metta / LU Riga 1-0 away from home. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Metta / LU Riga at 42%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. We had also flagged no to both teams scoring (55%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Metta / LU Riga had 59% of the ball to BFC Daugavpils's 41%, shots finished 8-14, expected goals 0.62 to 0.81.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, BFC Daugavpils led the recent series with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Metta / LU Riga and 2.17 for BFC Daugavpils.

What was the final score of Metta / LU Riga vs BFC Daugavpils?

Metta / LU Riga 0-1 BFC Daugavpils in the Latvia - Virsliga on 03/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Metta / LU Riga vs BFC Daugavpils?

Before kick-off our model rated a Metta / LU Riga win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Metta / LU Riga 42%, draw 23%, BFC Daugavpils 36%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS No — while Match Result (Metta / LU Riga) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Metta / LU Riga) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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