Cimarrones de Sonora 2-1 CA La Paz — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Mexico - Primera A, 3 Apr 2024

📅03/04/2024 · 🕒04:05 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
1.76
Draw
26%
3.54
Away
30%
3.83
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
1.8
Over 2.5
49%
1.91
Both Teams to Score
Yes
45%
1.81
No
55%
1.9
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
34%
2-3 Goals
32%
4-5 Goals
25%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
7%
X/1
16%
X/2
14%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
10%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
53%
-8.6pp
26%
Draw
25%
+0.8pp
30%
Away Win
23%
+7.7pp
51%
Under 2.5
52%
-0.6pp
49%
Over 2.5
48%
+0.5pp
45%
BTTS Yes
51%
-6.1pp
55%
BTTS No
49%
+6.1pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Cimarrones de Sonora EU Bookmakers 57%
Head to Head
AWAY CA La Paz EU Bookmakers 26%
-11% / -13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -12% / -13%
1.70/0.79 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.92/1.96
+2% / +13% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -12% / -29%
53% Ball Possession 47%
18 Total Shots 10
7 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 3
386 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 294 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Cimarrones de Sonora
2W-0D-1L
AWAY CA La Paz
2.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
31.08.2023 CA La Paz CA La Paz 2-1 HT 1-0 Cimarrones de Sonora Cimarrones de Sonora MEK2
02.02.2023 CA La Paz CA La Paz 1-2 HT 0-1 Cimarrones de Sonora Cimarrones de Sonora MEK2
31.08.2022 Cimarrones de Sonora Cimarrones de Sonora 4-0 HT 1-0 CA La Paz CA La Paz MEK2
POST-MATCH Cimarrones de Sonora vs CA La Paz
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Cimarrones de Sonora squeezed past CA La Paz 2-1. Half-time: 1-0.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Cimarrones de Sonora as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (55%) — went the other way, though.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Cimarrones de Sonora had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 2.33 goals for Cimarrones de Sonora and 1.00 for CA La Paz.

What was the final score of Cimarrones de Sonora vs CA La Paz?

Cimarrones de Sonora 2-1 CA La Paz in the Mexico - Primera A on 03/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Cimarrones de Sonora vs CA La Paz?

Before kick-off our model rated a Cimarrones de Sonora win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Cimarrones de Sonora 44%, draw 26%, CA La Paz 30%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Cimarrones de Sonora) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Cimarrones de Sonora) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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