Pogon Szczecin 2-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Cup, 3 Apr 2024

📅03/04/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 2-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
40%
2.12
Draw
29%
3.54
Away
31%
2.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
49%
2.23
Over 2.5
51%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.5
No
47%
2.4
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
28%
4.55
2-3 Goals
36%
1.9
4-5 Goals
26%
2.89
6+ Goals
10%
8.28
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
2.97
1/2
6%
28.5
1/X
8%
12.8
X/1
17%
5.12
X/2
15%
6.54
X/X
17%
5.48
2/1
7%
23.15
2/2
10%
4.17
2/X
4%
13.0
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
40%
Home Win
43%
-3.5pp
29%
Draw
25%
+4.8pp
31%
Away Win
32%
-1.2pp
49%
Under 2.5
41%
+8.2pp
51%
Over 2.5
59%
-8.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
62%
-10.0pp
47%
BTTS No
38%
+9.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Pogon Szczecin EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok EU Bookmakers 36%
-58% / -58% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -11%
1.00/2.07 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.18/1.92
-36% / -33% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -9% / -25%
50% Ball Possession 50%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
309 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 75%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Pogon Szczecin
5W-0D-1L
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 0.83
1.96 xG 1.00
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 9
5 Shots on Target 2
7 Corners 5
324 Passes 254
75% Pass Accuracy 71%
26 Box Touches 16
19 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 3
28.10.2023 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 2-1 HT 1-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
11.02.2023 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-0 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
31.07.2022 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 1-0 HT 1-0 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
16.04.2022 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 1-2 HT 1-1 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
23.10.2021 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin 4-1 HT 2-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok POL
12.03.2021 Jagiellonia Bialystok Jagiellonia Bialystok 0-1 HT 0-0 Pogon Szczecin Pogon Szczecin POL
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Pogon Szczecin
2-1
AWAY Jagiellonia Bialystok
48% Ball Possession 52%
20 Total Shots 13
8 Shots on Target 5
9 Corners 3
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia Bialystok
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Pogon Szczecin squeezed past Jagiellonia Bialystok 2-1. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match split (40% / 29% / 31%) promised a tight game; Pogon Szczecin found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 51% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Pogon Szczecin had 48% of the ball to Jagiellonia Bialystok's 52%, shots finished 20-13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Pogon Szczecin had the better of it with 5 wins. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Pogon Szczecin and 0.83 for Jagiellonia Bialystok.

What was the final score of Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Pogon Szczecin 2-1 Jagiellonia Bialystok in the Poland - Cup on 03/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Pogon Szczecin vs Jagiellonia Bialystok?

Before kick-off our model rated a Pogon Szczecin win the most likely single outcome at about 40%, with the full match-result split Pogon Szczecin 40%, draw 29%, Jagiellonia Bialystok 31%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Pogon Szczecin), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Pogon Szczecin) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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