Melgar 3-3 Vasco da Gama — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 3 Apr 2025

📅03/04/2025 · 🕒01:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.19
Draw
28%
2.94
Away
28%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.56
Over 2.5
40%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.99
No
57%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.34
2-3 Goals
43%
1.74
4-5 Goals
17%
4.7
6+ Goals
7%
27.0
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.3
1/2
6%
35.0
1/X
6%
13.6
X/1
16%
4.91
X/2
11%
6.69
X/X
17%
3.79
2/1
7%
32.0
2/2
11%
5.33
2/X
5%
14.25
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
42%
+2.3pp
28%
Draw
30%
-2.3pp
28%
Away Win
28%
+0.1pp
60%
Under 2.5
60%
-0.6pp
40%
Over 2.5
40%
+0.6pp
43%
BTTS Yes
46%
-2.7pp
57%
BTTS No
54%
+2.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Melgar EU Bookmakers 46%
Head to Head
AWAY Vasco da Gama EU Bookmakers 32%
+50% / +50% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+150% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
301 · 76% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 318 · 77%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Melgar
3-3
AWAY Vasco da Gama
1.82 xG 0.92
66% Ball Possession 34%
20 Total Shots 6
7 Shots on Target 3
16 Corners 0
490 Passes 241
90% Pass Accuracy 80%
53 Box Touches 6
63 Crosses 5
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Melgar vs Vasco da Gama
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Melgar and Vasco da Gama couldn't be separated, finishing 3-3. Half-time: 1-2. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Our pre-match lean was Melgar at 44%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (57%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Melgar had 66% of the ball to Vasco da Gama's 34%, shots finished 20-6, expected goals 1.82 to 0.92.

What was the final score of Melgar vs Vasco da Gama?

Melgar 3-3 Vasco da Gama in the Copa Sudamericana on 03/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Melgar vs Vasco da Gama?

Before kick-off our model rated a Melgar win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Melgar 44%, draw 28%, Vasco da Gama 28%. The final score 3-3 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Melgar) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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