Sportivo Luqueno 1-2 Gremio — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Copa Sudamericana, 3 Apr 2025

📅03/04/2025 · 🕒03:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
27%
4.04
Draw
31%
3.35
Away
42%
1.74
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
63%
1.67
Over 2.5
37%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
39%
1.99
No
61%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
37%
2.6
2-3 Goals
40%
1.73
4-5 Goals
16%
4.14
6+ Goals
7%
20.6
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.6 — our 37% vs market 31.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
7.89
1/2
4%
27.5
1/X
7%
16.65
X/1
7%
9.15
X/2
18%
4.15
X/X
17%
4.44
2/1
7%
35.0
2/2
20%
2.37
2/X
7%
14.95
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
27%
Home Win
21%
+5.6pp
31%
Draw
26%
+5.1pp
42%
Away Win
53%
-10.7pp
63%
Under 2.5
56%
+7.2pp
37%
Over 2.5
44%
-7.2pp
39%
BTTS Yes
46%
-7.0pp
61%
BTTS No
54%
+7.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sportivo Luqueno EU Bookmakers 25%
Head to Head
AWAY Gremio EU Bookmakers 57%
+55% / +55% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+150% / Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
46% Ball Possession 54%
10 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
297 · 80% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 387 · 82%
15.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
17.0 Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sportivo Luqueno
1-2
AWAY Gremio
0.38 xG 1.16
36% Ball Possession 64%
8 Total Shots 10
3 Shots on Target 5
1 Corners 5
149 Passes 331
59% Pass Accuracy 76%
11 Box Touches 27
10 Crosses 14
3 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sportivo Luqueno vs Gremio
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Gremio nicked a narrow win over Sportivo Luqueno 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Gremio as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 2-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (63%), no to both teams scoring (61%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Sportivo Luqueno had 36% of the ball to Gremio's 64%, shots finished 8-10, expected goals 0.38 to 1.16.

What was the final score of Sportivo Luqueno vs Gremio?

Sportivo Luqueno 1-2 Gremio in the Copa Sudamericana on 03/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sportivo Luqueno vs Gremio?

Before kick-off our model rated an Gremio win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Sportivo Luqueno 27%, draw 31%, Gremio 42%. The final score 1-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Gremio) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Gremio) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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