03/04/2025
·
18:30
Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score
1-0
2nd Score
1-1
Erbil vs Al-Qasim Prediction — Model Probabilities
MODEL
iddaakolik
· Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Under/Over 2.5
Both Teams to Score
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
2-3 Goals
47%
4-5 Goals
18%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
22%
1/2
7%
1/X
6%
X/1
24%
X/2
8%
X/X
12%
2/1
6%
2/2
9%
2/X
6%
PRO
iddaakolik
· Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
✋
Decision
No Bet — Skip This Match
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik
Market
EU Bookmakers
52%
Home Win
45%
24%
Draw
29%
24%
Away Win
26%
52%
Under 2.5
59%
48%
Over 2.5
41%
50%
BTTS Yes
46%
50%
BTTS No
54%
gold — our model
green — our served pick
grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
Erbil v Al-Qasim — Team-Based Signals
PREVIEW
Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME
Erbil
EU Bookmakers 49%
Head to Head
AWAY
Al-Qasim
EU Bookmakers 29%
-61% /
-61%
Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations
-2% /
-2%
0.00/1.00
Expected GoalsScored / Conceded
0.42/0.94
-100%
/
-29%
Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.)
-56%
/
+11%
55%
Ball Possession
45%
14
Total Shots
10
5
Shots on Target
4
5
Corners
4
366 · 81%
PassesSuccessful · Accuracy
279 · 75%
–
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
–
–
Crosses
–
–
Yellow Cards
–
POST-MATCH
Erbil vs Al-Qasim
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened
Al-Qasim squeezed past Erbil 1-0 away from home.
Our pre-match lean was Erbil at 52%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.
Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.
What was the final score of Erbil vs Al-Qasim?
Erbil 0-1 Al-Qasim in the Iraq - Premier League on 03/04/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.
What did the model predict for Erbil vs Al-Qasim?
Before kick-off our model rated a Erbil win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Erbil 52%, draw 24%, Al-Qasim 24%. The final score 0-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5 — while Match Result (Erbil) went the other way.
✗ Match Result (Erbil)
✓ Under 2.5
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IRAK
More Iraq - Premier League
3 Apr 2025