Fortuna Düsseldorf 3-1 Nürnberg — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 3 May 2024

Fortuna Düsseldorf
3-1 HT 2-0
Nürnberg
📅03/05/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 ✗ 2nd Score 3-1 ✓
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2023/2024

Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Nürnberg Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
56%
1.37
Draw
23%
4.62
Away
21%
5.79
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
42%
2.51
Over 2.5
58%
1.48
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.73
No
47%
1.99
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
5.48
2-3 Goals
35%
2.01
4-5 Goals
28%
2.66
6+ Goals
14%
6.43
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1.61
1/2
5%
34.5
1/X EV+ ✗
8%
19.4
X/1
22%
3.66
X/2
7%
15.8
X/X
9%
7.81
2/1
6%
20.1
2/2
9%
11.3
2/X
6%
19.45
Value flag · 1/X at 19.4 — our 8% vs market 2.6%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Over 2.5 ★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
56%
Home Win
68%
-12.2pp
23%
Draw
18%
+4.9pp
21%
Away Win
14%
+7.2pp
42%
Under 2.5
36%
+6.0pp
58%
Over 2.5
64%
-6.0pp
53%
BTTS Yes
54%
-0.5pp
47%
BTTS No
46%
+0.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Fortuna Düsseldorf v Nürnberg — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortuna Düsseldorf EU Bookmakers 73%
Head to Head
AWAY Nürnberg EU Bookmakers 17%
-1% / +8% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +7%
2.06/0.85 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.00/1.75
-8% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / -10%
57% Ball Possession 43%
17 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 4
403 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 74%
29.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.7
24.3 Crosses 14.7
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.1

Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Nürnberg Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortuna Düsseldorf
1W-1D-4L
AWAY Nürnberg
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.45 xG 1.09
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 12
3 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
437 Passes 320
83% Pass Accuracy 77%
27 Box Touches 21
24 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
02.12.2023 Nürnberg Nürnberg 0-5 HT 0-3 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf AL2
22.04.2023 Nürnberg Nürnberg 2-0 HT 1-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf AL2
08.02.2023 Nürnberg Nürnberg 1-1 HT 0-1 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf AFK
15.10.2022 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf 0-1 HT 0-0 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2
21.01.2022 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf 0-1 HT 0-1 Nürnberg Nürnberg AL2
14.08.2021 Nürnberg Nürnberg 2-0 HT 0-0 Fortuna Düsseldorf Fortuna Düsseldorf AL2

Fortuna Düsseldorf 3-1 Nürnberg — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortuna Düsseldorf
3-1
AWAY Nürnberg
2.73 xG 0.45
53% Ball Possession 47%
29 Total Shots 11
10 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 7
432 Passes 358
86% Pass Accuracy 85%
50 Box Touches 19
17 Crosses 28
0 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Nürnberg
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortuna Düsseldorf beat Nürnberg 3-1. Half-time: 2-0.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Fortuna Düsseldorf as the likeliest winner at 56%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (58%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Fortuna Düsseldorf had 53% of the ball to Nürnberg's 47%, shots finished 29-11, expected goals 2.73 to 0.45.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, Nürnberg led the recent series with 4 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Fortuna Düsseldorf and 1.17 for Nürnberg.

What was the final score of Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Nürnberg?

Fortuna Düsseldorf 3-1 Nürnberg in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 03/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortuna Düsseldorf vs Nürnberg?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fortuna Düsseldorf win the most likely single outcome at about 56%, with the full match-result split Fortuna Düsseldorf 56%, draw 23%, Nürnberg 21%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fortuna Düsseldorf), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fortuna Düsseldorf) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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