Hamburg 1-0 St. Pauli — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 3 May 2024

📅03/05/2024 · 🕒19:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-1 2nd Score 1-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
38%
2.12
Draw
28%
3.45
Away
34%
2.9
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
51%
2.21
Over 2.5
49%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.53
No
52%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✓
28%
4.51
2-3 Goals
38%
1.9
4-5 Goals
23%
2.9
6+ Goals
11%
8.41
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.51 — our 28% vs market 17.3%. Landed.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.98
1/2
7%
28.5
1/X
8%
12.3
X/1
10%
5.21
X/2
13%
6.69
X/X
10%
5.26
2/1
6%
23.6
2/2
14%
4.24
2/X
9%
12.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
38%
Home Win
43%
-5.0pp
27%
Draw
26%
+1.9pp
34%
Away Win
31%
+3.2pp
51%
Under 2.5
41%
+9.8pp
49%
Over 2.5
59%
-9.8pp
48%
BTTS Yes
61%
-13.0pp
52%
BTTS No
39%
+13.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Hamburg EU Bookmakers 47%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Pauli EU Bookmakers 34%
+3% / +5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +10%
2.10/1.23 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.37/1.48
+11% / +2% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +3% / -13%
48% Ball Possession 52%
14 Total Shots 13
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 5
292 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 315 · 74%
32.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 22.6
24.6 Crosses 18.5
2.2 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Hamburg
2W-1D-3L
AWAY St. Pauli
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.23 xG 1.43
52% Ball Possession 48%
9 Total Shots 16
3 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 5
342 Passes 311
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
19 Box Touches 25
19 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 3
01.12.2023 St. Pauli St. Pauli 2-2 HT 2-0 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
21.04.2023 Hamburg Hamburg 4-3 HT 1-1 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
14.10.2022 St. Pauli St. Pauli 3-0 HT 0-0 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
21.01.2022 Hamburg Hamburg 2-1 HT 0-1 St. Pauli St. Pauli AL2
13.08.2021 St. Pauli St. Pauli 3-2 HT 1-1 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
01.03.2021 St. Pauli St. Pauli 1-0 HT 0-0 Hamburg Hamburg AL2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Hamburg
1-0
AWAY St. Pauli
1.67 xG 1.54
46% Ball Possession 54%
12 Total Shots 13
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 1
350 Passes 429
82% Pass Accuracy 85%
19 Box Touches 20
12 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Hamburg vs St. Pauli
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Hamburg squeezed past St. Pauli 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

We called this one close before kick-off — 38% / 27% / 34% — and on the day Hamburg made the difference.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 49% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Hamburg had 46% of the ball to St. Pauli's 54%, shots finished 12-13, expected goals 1.67 to 1.54.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, St. Pauli led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Hamburg and 2.17 for St. Pauli.

What was the final score of Hamburg vs St. Pauli?

Hamburg 1-0 St. Pauli in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 03/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Hamburg vs St. Pauli?

Before kick-off our model rated a Hamburg win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Hamburg 38%, draw 27%, St. Pauli 34%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Hamburg), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Hamburg) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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