Toulouse 1-2 Montpellier — Result, Statistics & Match Review — France - Ligue 1, 3 May 2024

Toulouse
1-2 HT 1-1
Montpellier
📅03/05/2024 · 🕒20:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-1 ✗
France - Ligue 1 – 2023/2024

Toulouse vs Montpellier Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.96
Draw
28%
3.54
Away
29%
3.15
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.21
Over 2.5
47%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
48%
1.56
No
52%
2.27
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
28%
4.43
2-3 Goals
40%
1.89
4-5 Goals
21%
2.93
6+ Goals
11%
8.62
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 4.43 — our 28% vs market 17.7%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
23%
2.65
1/2
6%
32.0
1/X
8%
13.05
X/1
12%
4.72
X/2
9%
7.34
X/X
14%
5.46
2/1
8%
22.3
2/2
14%
4.88
2/X
6%
13.35
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
43%
Home Win
47%
-4.1pp
28%
Draw
25%
+3.2pp
29%
Away Win
28%
+0.8pp
53%
Under 2.5
41%
+11.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
59%
-11.3pp
48%
BTTS Yes
60%
-11.8pp
52%
BTTS No
40%
+11.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Toulouse v Montpellier — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Toulouse EU Bookmakers 51%
Head to Head
AWAY Montpellier EU Bookmakers 32%
-3% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +7% / +22%
1.44/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.16/1.46
-3% / -1% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +26% / +21%
49% Ball Possession 51%
12 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
333 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 359 · 79%
25.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 15.2
19.1 Crosses 15.8
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.1

Toulouse vs Montpellier Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Toulouse
2W-0D-4L
AWAY Montpellier
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 2.33
1.12 xG 1.82
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 16
5 Shots on Target 6
3 Corners 5
346 Passes 299
78% Pass Accuracy 76%
17 Box Touches 24
14 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
29.10.2023 Montpellier Montpellier 3-0 HT 1-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
15.07.2023 Montpellier Montpellier 3-1 HT 1-1 Toulouse Toulouse HAZ
09.04.2023 Montpellier Montpellier 1-2 HT 0-1 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
02.10.2022 Toulouse Toulouse 4-2 HT 3-1 Montpellier Montpellier FR1
10.11.2019 Montpellier Montpellier 3-0 HT 1-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1
14.04.2019 Montpellier Montpellier 2-1 HT 0-0 Toulouse Toulouse FR1

Toulouse 1-2 Montpellier — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Toulouse
1-2
AWAY Montpellier
1.28 xG 0.47
63% Ball Possession 37%
15 Total Shots 5
5 Shots on Target 3
8 Corners 0
443 Passes 238
85% Pass Accuracy 76%
27 Box Touches 14
32 Crosses 3
2 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Toulouse vs Montpellier
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Montpellier edged past Toulouse 2-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Toulouse at 43%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 48%.

On the day, Toulouse had 63% of the ball to Montpellier's 37%, shots finished 15-5, expected goals 1.28 to 0.47 — the balance of chances actually favoured Toulouse.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Montpellier led the recent series with 4 wins. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Toulouse and 2.33 for Montpellier.

What was the final score of Toulouse vs Montpellier?

Toulouse 1-2 Montpellier in the France - Ligue 1 on 03/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Toulouse vs Montpellier?

Before kick-off our model rated a Toulouse win the most likely single outcome at about 43%, with the full match-result split Toulouse 43%, draw 28%, Montpellier 29%. The final score 1-2 went against our main leads this time — single matches are noisy by nature; our accuracy is measured across thousands of predictions, not one result.

✗ Match Result (Toulouse) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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