BFC Daugavpils 1-0 FS Jelgava — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Latvia - Virsliga, 3 May 2024

📅03/05/2024 · 🕒18:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
1.9
Draw
34%
3.28
Away
31%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
1.56
Over 2.5
48%
2.29
Both Teams to Score
Yes
52%
2.09
No
48%
1.66
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
33%
4-5 Goals
24%
6+ Goals
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
14%
1/2
9%
1/X
7%
X/1
14%
X/2
6%
X/X
22%
2/1
7%
2/2
16%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
49%
-14.2pp
34%
Draw
27%
+6.4pp
32%
Away Win
24%
+7.8pp
52%
Under 2.5
60%
-7.9pp
48%
Over 2.5
40%
+7.9pp
52%
BTTS Yes
44%
+7.8pp
48%
BTTS No
56%
-7.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME BFC Daugavpils EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY FS Jelgava EU Bookmakers 27%
+21% / +21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +3% / +1%
2.06/1.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.21/1.62
+44% / -3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / -4%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
318 · 77% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 322 · 76%
21.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 21.7
15.4 Crosses 12.3
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME BFC Daugavpils
1W-3D-2L
AWAY FS Jelgava
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 1.17
1.09 xG 1.02
49% Ball Possession 51%
10 Total Shots 9
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 2
271 Passes 265
69% Pass Accuracy 68%
18 Box Touches 19
20 Crosses 11
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.03.2024 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 0-0 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
16.09.2023 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 0-0 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
30.06.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 1-1 HT 0-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
26.05.2023 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils 5-2 HT 1-0 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava LET
17.03.2023 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 2-1 HT 1-1 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
27.09.2020 FS Jelgava FS Jelgava 2-0 HT 0-0 BFC Daugavpils BFC Daugavpils LET
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME BFC Daugavpils
1-0
AWAY FS Jelgava
0.92 xG 1.48
42% Ball Possession 58%
10 Total Shots 20
4 Shots on Target 8
11 Corners 4
195 Passes 333
70% Pass Accuracy 83%
25 Box Touches 23
21 Crosses 21
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

BFC Daugavpils squeezed past FS Jelgava 1-0.

Our pre-match split (35% / 34% / 32%) promised a tight game; BFC Daugavpils found the edge the numbers couldn't.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 48% and both teams to score was close to even at 52%.

On the day, BFC Daugavpils had 42% of the ball to FS Jelgava's 58%, shots finished 10-20, expected goals 0.92 to 1.48 — on chances, FS Jelgava could feel hard done by.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, FS Jelgava led the recent series with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for BFC Daugavpils and 1.17 for FS Jelgava.

What was the final score of BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava?

BFC Daugavpils 1-0 FS Jelgava in the Latvia - Virsliga on 03/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava?

Before kick-off our model rated a BFC Daugavpils win the most likely single outcome at about 35%, with the full match-result split BFC Daugavpils 35%, draw 34%, FS Jelgava 32%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (BFC Daugavpils), Under 2.5 — while BTTS Yes went the other way.

✓ Match Result (BFC Daugavpils) ✓ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS Yes
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