Ruch Chorzow 2-1 Lech Poznan — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Poland - Ekstraklasa, 3 May 2024

Ruch Chorzow
2-1 HT 1-1
Lech Poznan
📅03/05/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Poland - Ekstraklasa – 2023/2024

Ruch Chorzow vs Lech Poznan Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
3.17
Draw
25%
3.45
Away
41%
1.98
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
2.0
Over 2.5
47%
1.74
Both Teams to Score
Yes
51%
1.66
No
49%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
29%
3.78
2-3 Goals
42%
1.82
4-5 Goals
20%
3.22
6+ Goals
9%
11.15
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.78 — our 29% vs market 21.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
16%
5.19
1/2
7%
23.6
1/X
7%
13.45
X/1
12%
7.37
X/2
18%
4.6
X/X
11%
5.01
2/1
6%
34.5
2/2
16%
2.68
2/X
7%
13.1
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
28%
+6.0pp
25%
Draw
26%
-0.6pp
41%
Away Win
46%
-5.5pp
53%
Under 2.5
46%
+6.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
54%
-6.2pp
51%
BTTS Yes
56%
-5.6pp
49%
BTTS No
44%
+5.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Ruch Chorzow v Lech Poznan — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ruch Chorzow EU Bookmakers 32%
Head to Head
AWAY Lech Poznan EU Bookmakers 50%
-7% / -15% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +6%
1.50/1.14 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.63/1.03
+0% / -11% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +14%
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
293 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 392 · 80%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 24.9
21.2 Crosses 19.2
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.3

Ruch Chorzow vs Lech Poznan Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Ruch Chorzow
0W-0D-6L
AWAY Lech Poznan
0.17 Avg Goals (FT) 3.17
0.71 xG 1.95
50% Ball Possession 50%
10 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 8
4 Corners 4
199 Passes 493
68% Pass Accuracy 85%
14 Box Touches 29
16 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 0
The Meetings
04.11.2023 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 2-0 HT 1-0 Ruch Chorzow Ruch Chorzow POL
22.04.2017 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 3-0 HT 2-0 Ruch Chorzow Ruch Chorzow POL
04.11.2016 Ruch Chorzow Ruch Chorzow 0-5 HT 0-2 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL
21.09.2016 Ruch Chorzow Ruch Chorzow 0-3 HT 0-2 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POLK
15.05.2016 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan 3-0 HT 1-0 Ruch Chorzow Ruch Chorzow POL
12.03.2016 Ruch Chorzow Ruch Chorzow 1-3 HT 0-1 Lech Poznan Lech Poznan POL

Ruch Chorzow 2-1 Lech Poznan — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ruch Chorzow
2-1
AWAY Lech Poznan
1.89 xG 1.50
44% Ball Possession 56%
16 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 3
3 Corners 7
281 Passes 401
74% Pass Accuracy 80%
28 Box Touches 23
27 Crosses 22
2 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Ruch Chorzow vs Lech Poznan
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ruch Chorzow nicked a narrow win over Lech Poznan 2-1. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Our pre-match lean was Lech Poznan at 41%, but a lead that slim is closer to a coin-flip than a call — and it fell the other way.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 51%.

On the day, Ruch Chorzow had 44% of the ball to Lech Poznan's 56%, shots finished 16-12, expected goals 1.89 to 1.50.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Lech Poznan led the recent series with 6 wins. Those games averaged 0.17 goals for Ruch Chorzow and 3.17 for Lech Poznan.

What was the final score of Ruch Chorzow vs Lech Poznan?

Ruch Chorzow 2-1 Lech Poznan in the Poland - Ekstraklasa on 03/05/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ruch Chorzow vs Lech Poznan?

Before kick-off our model rated an Lech Poznan win the most likely single outcome at about 41%, with the full match-result split Ruch Chorzow 34%, draw 25%, Lech Poznan 41%. The final score 2-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Lech Poznan), Under 2.5 went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Lech Poznan) ✗ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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