Sturm Graz II 2-4 St. Pölten — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Austria - 1st Division, 3 May 2025

📅03/05/2025 · 🕒21:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-3
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
25%
5.34
Draw
25%
4.62
Away
50%
1.42
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
39%
2.96
Over 2.5
61%
1.36
Both Teams to Score
Yes
58%
1.53
No
42%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
2-3 Goals
32%
4-5 Goals
32%
6+ Goals
13%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
9%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
8%
X/2
22%
X/X
11%
2/1
9%
2/2
23%
2/X
7%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
25%
Home Win
16%
+9.8pp
25%
Draw
18%
+6.4pp
50%
Away Win
66%
-16.2pp
39%
Under 2.5
30%
+8.9pp
61%
Over 2.5
70%
-8.9pp
58%
BTTS Yes
61%
-3.3pp
42%
BTTS No
39%
+3.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sturm Graz II EU Bookmakers 19%
Head to Head
AWAY St. Pölten EU Bookmakers 70%
+10% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +6%
1.72/1.88 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 2.03/0.93
+47% / +7% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -3% / +26%
44% Ball Possession 56%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
4 Corners 5
267 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 364 · 78%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.9 Yellow Cards 2.7
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sturm Graz II
2W-0D-3L
AWAY St. Pölten
1.80 Avg Goals (FT) 2.20
51% Ball Possession 49%
12 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 5
5 Corners 5
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.11.2024 St. Pölten St. Pölten 0-2 HT 0-1 Sturm Graz II Sturm Graz II AU2
01.12.2023 St. Pölten St. Pölten 3-1 HT 3-0 Sturm Graz II Sturm Graz II AU2
30.07.2023 Sturm Graz II Sturm Graz II 1-4 HT 0-1 St. Pölten St. Pölten AU2
26.02.2023 Sturm Graz II Sturm Graz II 0-2 HT 0-0 St. Pölten St. Pölten AU2
12.08.2022 St. Pölten St. Pölten 2-5 HT 1-1 Sturm Graz II Sturm Graz II AU2
POST-MATCH Sturm Graz II vs St. Pölten
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

St. Pölten got the better of Sturm Graz II 4-2 away from home. Half-time: 1-3. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had St. Pölten as the likeliest winner at 50%, and the 4-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (61%), both teams to score (58%), and both reads landed as well.

For context: across their last 5 meetings in our records, St. Pölten led the recent series with 3 wins. Those games averaged 1.80 goals for Sturm Graz II and 2.20 for St. Pölten.

What was the final score of Sturm Graz II vs St. Pölten?

Sturm Graz II 2-4 St. Pölten in the Austria - 1st Division on 03/05/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sturm Graz II vs St. Pölten?

Before kick-off our model rated an St. Pölten win the most likely single outcome at about 50%, with the full match-result split Sturm Graz II 25%, draw 25%, St. Pölten 50%. The final score 2-4 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (St. Pölten), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (St. Pölten) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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