Fortaleza 1-0 Atletico Paranaense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 3 Jun 2024

📅03/06/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 0-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
42%
1.9
Draw
29%
3.18
Away
29%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.62
Over 2.5
40%
2.18
Both Teams to Score
Yes
43%
1.99
No
57%
1.73
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2.58
2-3 Goals
40%
1.77
4-5 Goals
17%
4.57
6+ Goals
10%
24.45
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
13%
2.64
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
14.5
X/1
22%
4.11
X/2
7%
7.75
X/X
17%
4.08
2/1
7%
28.5
2/2
16%
6.45
2/X
6%
15.2
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
42%
Home Win
48%
-6.4pp
29%
Draw
28%
+1.2pp
29%
Away Win
24%
+5.2pp
60%
Under 2.5
58%
+2.6pp
40%
Over 2.5
42%
-2.6pp
43%
BTTS Yes
46%
-3.0pp
57%
BTTS No
54%
+3.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Fortaleza EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Atletico Paranaense EU Bookmakers 27%
-4% / -9% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -4% / -5%
1.67/0.82 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.01/1.54
-4% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +4% / -6%
51% Ball Possession 49%
14 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
336 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 331 · 80%
23.0 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 16.4
22.1 Crosses 16.8
2.2 Yellow Cards 2.6
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Fortaleza
2W-3D-1L
AWAY Atletico Paranaense
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 0.67
1.13 xG 1.20
52% Ball Possession 49%
16 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
323 Passes 290
78% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 17
19 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 2
09.11.2023 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 1-1 HT 0-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
10.07.2023 Fortaleza Fortaleza 1-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
06.10.2022 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 1-1 HT 0-1 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
13.06.2022 Fortaleza Fortaleza 0-0 HT 0-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
24.10.2021 Fortaleza Fortaleza 3-0 HT 2-0 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense BR1
04.07.2021 Atletico Paranaense Atletico Paranaense 2-1 HT 2-0 Fortaleza Fortaleza BR1
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Fortaleza
1-0
AWAY Atletico Paranaense
1.27 xG 0.71
52% Ball Possession 48%
11 Total Shots 15
4 Shots on Target 2
2 Corners 4
342 Passes 315
81% Pass Accuracy 81%
19 Box Touches 28
14 Crosses 17
3 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Fortaleza vs Atletico Paranaense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Fortaleza squeezed past Atletico Paranaense 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Fortaleza as the likeliest winner at 42%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (60%), no to both teams scoring (57%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Fortaleza had 52% of the ball to Atletico Paranaense's 48%, shots finished 11-15, expected goals 1.27 to 0.71.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Fortaleza had the better of it with 2 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Fortaleza and 0.67 for Atletico Paranaense.

What was the final score of Fortaleza vs Atletico Paranaense?

Fortaleza 1-0 Atletico Paranaense in the Brazil - Serie A on 03/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Fortaleza vs Atletico Paranaense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Fortaleza win the most likely single outcome at about 42%, with the full match-result split Fortaleza 42%, draw 29%, Atletico Paranaense 29%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Fortaleza), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Fortaleza) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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