Sao Paulo 2-0 Cruzeiro — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Brazil - Serie A, 3 Jun 2024

Sao Paulo
2-0 HT 1-0
Cruzeiro
📅03/06/2024 · 🕒00:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 0-0 ✗ 2nd Score 1-0 ✗
Brazil - Serie A – 2024

Sao Paulo vs Cruzeiro Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
43%
1.9
Draw
33%
3.18
Away
24%
3.71
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
66%
1.51
Over 2.5
34%
2.43
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.19
No
64%
1.6
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
41%
2.22
2-3 Goals
36%
1.8
4-5 Goals
15%
5.57
6+ Goals
8%
34.5
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 2.22 — our 41% vs market 38.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
2.74
1/2
6%
34.5
1/X
6%
15.8
X/1
15%
3.93
X/2
8%
7.51
X/X
19%
3.79
2/1
8%
31.5
2/2
9%
6.69
2/X
8%
16.5
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
48%
-5.0pp
33%
Draw
28%
+5.0pp
24%
Away Win
24%
+0.1pp
66%
Under 2.5
62%
+3.7pp
34%
Over 2.5
38%
-3.7pp
36%
BTTS Yes
42%
-5.3pp
64%
BTTS No
58%
+5.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Sao Paulo v Cruzeiro — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Sao Paulo EU Bookmakers 53%
Head to Head
AWAY Cruzeiro EU Bookmakers 27%
-1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +1% / +20%
1.25/0.89 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.08/1.19
-17% / +22% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +5% / +39%
53% Ball Possession 47%
14 Total Shots 11
4 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 4
392 · 82% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 344 · 80%
23.7 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 18.3
23.5 Crosses 17.5
2.5 Yellow Cards 2.5

Sao Paulo vs Cruzeiro Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Sao Paulo
3W-1D-2L
AWAY Cruzeiro
0.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.50
0.97 xG 0.78
53% Ball Possession 47%
11 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 2
3 Corners 5
397 Passes 342
82% Pass Accuracy 80%
18 Box Touches 18
14 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
03.11.2023 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-0 HT 0-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
25.06.2023 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-0 HT 1-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
17.10.2019 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 1-0 HT 0-0 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1
02.06.2019 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-1 HT 1-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
19.11.2018 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo 1-0 HT 1-0 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro BR1
29.07.2018 Cruzeiro Cruzeiro 0-2 HT 0-1 Sao Paulo Sao Paulo BR1

Sao Paulo 2-0 Cruzeiro — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Sao Paulo
2-0
AWAY Cruzeiro
0.57 xG 0.60
56% Ball Possession 44%
11 Total Shots 10
4 Shots on Target 3
4 Corners 2
525 Passes 403
90% Pass Accuracy 87%
17 Box Touches 13
17 Crosses 9
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Sao Paulo vs Cruzeiro
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Sao Paulo saw off Cruzeiro 2-0. Half-time: 1-0.

As we said in the preview, our model had Sao Paulo as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 2-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (66%), no to both teams scoring (64%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Sao Paulo had 56% of the ball to Cruzeiro's 44%, shots finished 11-10, expected goals 0.57 to 0.60.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Sao Paulo had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 0.83 goals for Sao Paulo and 0.50 for Cruzeiro.

What was the final score of Sao Paulo vs Cruzeiro?

Sao Paulo 2-0 Cruzeiro in the Brazil - Serie A on 03/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Sao Paulo vs Cruzeiro?

Before kick-off our model rated a Sao Paulo win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Sao Paulo 44%, draw 33%, Cruzeiro 24%. The final score 2-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Sao Paulo), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Sao Paulo) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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