Independiente Del Valle 1-0 Orense — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Ecuador - Premier, 3 Jun 2024

Independiente Del Valle
1-0 HT 0-0
Orense
📅03/06/2024 · 🕒02:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 ✓ 2nd Score 2-0 ✗
Ecuador - Premier – 2024

Independiente Del Valle vs Orense Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
55%
1.18
Draw
26%
5.71
Away
19%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
61%
2.23
Over 2.5
39%
1.59
Both Teams to Score
Yes
36%
2.53
No
64%
1.46
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
35%
2-3 Goals
39%
4-5 Goals
14%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
30%
1/2
5%
1/X
6%
X/1
17%
X/2
9%
X/X
13%
2/1
9%
2/2
5%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Under 2.5 ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
55%
Home Win
80%
-24.2pp
26%
Draw
14%
+11.5pp
19%
Away Win
6%
+12.7pp
61%
Under 2.5
41%
+19.9pp
39%
Over 2.5
59%
-19.9pp
36%
BTTS Yes
36%
+0.3pp
64%
BTTS No
64%
-0.3pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Independiente Del Valle v Orense — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Independiente Del Valle EU Bookmakers 85%
Head to Head
AWAY Orense EU Bookmakers 9%
-5% / +7% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +2% / +7%
1.63/0.56 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.80/1.43
-10% / +21% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -7% / +14%
66% Ball Possession 34%
18 Total Shots 8
7 Shots on Target 2
6 Corners 3
461 · 86% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 191 · 69%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.6
18.2 Crosses 10.8
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.9

Independiente Del Valle vs Orense Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Independiente Del Valle
3W-2D-1L
AWAY Orense
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
1.48 xG 1.19
63% Ball Possession 37%
14 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
383 Passes 193
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
20 Box Touches 15
15 Crosses 13
2 Yellow Cards 3
The Meetings
26.11.2023 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 2-2 HT 1-0 Orense Orense EKV1
12.06.2023 Orense Orense 0-2 HT 0-1 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
06.08.2022 Orense Orense 1-2 HT 0-1 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1
19.03.2022 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 1-1 HT 1-1 Orense Orense EKV1
25.07.2021 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle 3-2 HT 2-1 Orense Orense EKV1
21.02.2021 Orense Orense 2-0 HT 1-0 Independiente Del Valle Independiente Del Valle EKV1

Independiente Del Valle 1-0 Orense — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Independiente Del Valle
1-0
AWAY Orense
1.86 xG 0.09
70% Ball Possession 30%
27 Total Shots 4
9 Shots on Target 2
16 Corners 0
510 Passes 170
88% Pass Accuracy 66%
33 Box Touches 1
43 Crosses 7
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Independiente Del Valle vs Orense
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Independiente Del Valle squeezed past Orense 1-0. The game was level at 0-0 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

As we said in the preview, our model had Independiente Del Valle as the likeliest winner at 55%, and the 1-0 landed on that lead. We had also flagged under 2.5 goals (61%), no to both teams scoring (64%), and both reads landed as well.

On the day, Independiente Del Valle had 70% of the ball to Orense's 30%, shots finished 27-4, expected goals 1.86 to 0.09 — an xG gap that size says the one-goal margin undersold Independiente Del Valle's control.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Independiente Del Valle had the better of it with 3 wins, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Independiente Del Valle and 1.33 for Orense.

What was the final score of Independiente Del Valle vs Orense?

Independiente Del Valle 1-0 Orense in the Ecuador - Premier on 03/06/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Independiente Del Valle vs Orense?

Before kick-off our model rated a Independiente Del Valle win the most likely single outcome at about 55%, with the full match-result split Independiente Del Valle 55%, draw 26%, Orense 19%. The final score 1-0 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Independiente Del Valle), Under 2.5, BTTS No — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Independiente Del Valle) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS No
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