Keflavik 3-2 UMF Selfoss — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Iceland - 1st Division, 3 Jul 2025

📅03/07/2025 · 🕒22:15 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
51%
1.42
Draw
19%
4.62
Away
30%
5.64
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
41%
2.21
Over 2.5
59%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
54%
1.6
No
46%
2.19
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
22%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
26%
6+ Goals
12%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
26%
1/2
6%
1/X
6%
X/1
15%
X/2
9%
X/X
7%
2/1
10%
2/2
15%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: BTTS Yes ★★★ Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
51%
Home Win
66%
-15.2pp
19%
Draw
19%
+0.6pp
30%
Away Win
15%
+14.7pp
41%
Under 2.5
41%
+0.1pp
59%
Over 2.5
59%
-0.1pp
54%
BTTS Yes
58%
-4.6pp
46%
BTTS No
42%
+4.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Keflavik EU Bookmakers 70%
Head to Head
AWAY UMF Selfoss EU Bookmakers 18%
-19% / -21% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -1% / -1%
2.12/1.29 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.20/2.84
-16% / +6% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -10% / -17%
54% Ball Possession 46%
16 Total Shots 9
8 Shots on Target 4
8 Corners 4
409 · 83% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 283 · 74%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.5 Yellow Cards 1.3
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Keflavik
3W-1D-2L
AWAY UMF Selfoss
2.00 Avg Goals (FT) 1.33
57% Ball Possession 43%
19 Total Shots 4
9 Shots on Target 2
8 Corners 4
3 Yellow Cards 4
28.02.2025 Keflavik Keflavik 3-0 UMF Selfoss UMF Selfoss İZLK
28.02.2021 Keflavik Keflavik 2-0 HT 0-0 UMF Selfoss UMF Selfoss İZLK
20.09.2012 UMF Selfoss UMF Selfoss 2-1 HT 1-0 Keflavik Keflavik İZL
02.07.2012 Keflavik Keflavik 2-2 HT 1-0 UMF Selfoss UMF Selfoss İZL
19.08.2010 UMF Selfoss UMF Selfoss 3-2 HT 0-2 Keflavik Keflavik İZL
31.05.2010 Keflavik Keflavik 2-1 HT 1-1 UMF Selfoss UMF Selfoss İZL
POST-MATCH Keflavik vs UMF Selfoss
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Keflavik squeezed past UMF Selfoss 3-2. The game was level at 2-2 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Keflavik as the likeliest winner at 51%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged over 2.5 goals (59%), and that read landed as well.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Keflavik had the better of it with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 2.00 goals for Keflavik and 1.33 for UMF Selfoss.

What was the final score of Keflavik vs UMF Selfoss?

Keflavik 3-2 UMF Selfoss in the Iceland - 1st Division on 03/07/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Keflavik vs UMF Selfoss?

Before kick-off our model rated a Keflavik win the most likely single outcome at about 51%, with the full match-result split Keflavik 51%, draw 19%, UMF Selfoss 30%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Keflavik), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Keflavik) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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