Bellinzona 1-1 Etoile Carouge — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 3 Aug 2024

📅03/08/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
34%
2.33
Draw
28%
3.35
Away
38%
2.62
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
53%
1.91
Over 2.5
47%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
53%
1.66
No
47%
2.09
Total Goals
0-1 Goal EV+ ✗
25%
3.5
2-3 Goals
42%
1.8
4-5 Goals
24%
3.41
6+ Goals
9%
12.8
Value flag · 0-1 Goal at 3.5 — our 25% vs market 23.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
15%
1/2
8%
1/X
9%
X/1
14%
X/2
15%
X/X
10%
2/1
5%
2/2
15%
2/X
9%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
34%
Home Win
39%
-4.8pp
28%
Draw
26%
+1.6pp
38%
Away Win
34%
+3.2pp
53%
Under 2.5
48%
+4.2pp
47%
Over 2.5
52%
-4.2pp
53%
BTTS Yes
56%
-3.7pp
47%
BTTS No
44%
+3.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Bellinzona EU Bookmakers 43%
Head to Head
AWAY Etoile Carouge EU Bookmakers 38%
-14% / -12% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
-41% / +23% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
48% Ball Possession 52%
10 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 5
336 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 274 · 71%
18.5 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
18.2 Crosses
2.3 Yellow Cards
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Bellinzona
2W-0D-1L
AWAY Etoile Carouge
3.00 Avg Goals (FT) 2.00
06.03.2022 Bellinzona Bellinzona 4-1 HT 1-0 Etoile Carouge Etoile Carouge İSV1Y
11.09.2021 Etoile Carouge Etoile Carouge 2-4 HT 1-3 Bellinzona Bellinzona İSV1Y
19.09.2020 Bellinzona Bellinzona 1-3 HT 0-3 Etoile Carouge Etoile Carouge İSV1Y
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Bellinzona
1-1
AWAY Etoile Carouge
0.88 xG 1.89
39% Ball Possession 61%
6 Total Shots 14
2 Shots on Target 8
1 Corners 4
282 Passes 483
82% Pass Accuracy 88%
11 Box Touches 18
8 Crosses 11
1 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Bellinzona vs Etoile Carouge
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Bellinzona and Etoile Carouge shared the points in a 1-1 draw. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

Our pre-match split (34% / 28% / 38%) said coin-flip, and the draw proved it right.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 47% and both teams to score was close to even at 53%.

On the day, Bellinzona had 39% of the ball to Etoile Carouge's 61%, shots finished 6-14, expected goals 0.88 to 1.89.

Coming into the game, across their last 3 meetings in our records, Bellinzona had the better of it with 2 wins. Those games averaged 3.00 goals for Bellinzona and 2.00 for Etoile Carouge.

What was the final score of Bellinzona vs Etoile Carouge?

Bellinzona 1-1 Etoile Carouge in the Switzerland Challenge League on 03/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Bellinzona vs Etoile Carouge?

Before kick-off our model rated an Etoile Carouge win the most likely single outcome at about 38%, with the full match-result split Bellinzona 34%, draw 28%, Etoile Carouge 38%. The final score 1-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Under 2.5, BTTS Yes — while Match Result (Etoile Carouge) went the other way.

✗ Match Result (Etoile Carouge) ✓ Under 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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