Aarau 1-3 Neuchatel Xamax — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 3 Aug 2024

📅03/08/2024 · 🕒19:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-2 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
35%
2.53
Draw
29%
3.45
Away
36%
2.35
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
43%
2.29
Over 2.5
57%
1.56
Both Teams to Score
Yes
57%
1.49
No
43%
2.44
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
23%
4.8
2-3 Goals
38%
1.93
4-5 Goals
27%
2.81
6+ Goals
12%
7.68
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
18%
1/2
7%
1/X
10%
X/1
10%
X/2
10%
X/X
11%
2/1
7%
2/2
19%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
35%
Home Win
36%
-0.6pp
29%
Draw
26%
+3.1pp
36%
Away Win
39%
-2.5pp
43%
Under 2.5
40%
+3.3pp
57%
Over 2.5
60%
-3.3pp
57%
BTTS Yes
63%
-6.0pp
43%
BTTS No
37%
+6.0pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Aarau EU Bookmakers 40%
Head to Head
AWAY Neuchatel Xamax EU Bookmakers 43%
+1% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -11% / -5%
0.99/1.01 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.60/1.08
+9% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +9% / -11%
50% Ball Possession 50%
12 Total Shots 14
5 Shots on Target 6
5 Corners 6
327 · 78% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 281 · 76%
19.6 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.6
14.5 Crosses 25.1
2.6 Yellow Cards 2.2
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Aarau
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Neuchatel Xamax
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 1.67
0.93 xG 1.45
61% Ball Possession 39%
12 Total Shots 14
4 Shots on Target 5
6 Corners 6
492 Passes 317
86% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 25
15 Crosses 21
2 Yellow Cards 2
12.04.2024 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax 3-1 HT 1-0 Aarau Aarau İSV2
01.03.2024 Aarau Aarau 2-0 HT 1-0 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax İSV2
15.12.2023 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax 2-1 HT 2-1 Aarau Aarau İSV2
06.08.2023 Aarau Aarau 2-3 HT 0-2 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax İSV2
22.04.2023 Aarau Aarau 5-2 HT 3-1 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax İSV2
03.03.2023 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax 0-0 HT 0-0 Aarau Aarau İSV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Aarau
1-3
AWAY Neuchatel Xamax
1.80 xG 1.92
48% Ball Possession 52%
15 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 5
264 Passes 287
73% Pass Accuracy 73%
18 Box Touches 22
17 Crosses 20
2 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Aarau vs Neuchatel Xamax
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Neuchatel Xamax saw off Aarau 3-1 away from home. It was 1-0 at half-time, meaning the result turned around in the second half.

We called this one close before kick-off — 35% / 29% / 36% — and on the day Neuchatel Xamax made the difference. The goals side of the card held up too — over 2.5 goals (57%), both teams to score (57%) came in.

On the day, Aarau had 48% of the ball to Neuchatel Xamax's 52%, shots finished 15-16, expected goals 1.80 to 1.92.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Neuchatel Xamax led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Aarau and 1.67 for Neuchatel Xamax.

What was the final score of Aarau vs Neuchatel Xamax?

Aarau 1-3 Neuchatel Xamax in the Switzerland Challenge League on 03/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Aarau vs Neuchatel Xamax?

Before kick-off our model rated an Neuchatel Xamax win the most likely single outcome at about 36%, with the full match-result split Aarau 35%, draw 29%, Neuchatel Xamax 36%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Neuchatel Xamax), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Neuchatel Xamax) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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