Neuchatel Xamax 3-1 Aarau — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Switzerland Challenge League, 12 Apr 2024

📅12/04/2024 · 🕒20:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 2nd Score 1-2
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
45%
2.02
Draw
23%
3.45
Away
32%
3.08
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
48%
2.21
Over 2.5
52%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
1.53
No
50%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
25%
4.48
2-3 Goals
43%
1.9
4-5 Goals
23%
2.92
6+ Goals
9%
8.48
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
20%
1/2
5%
1/X
10%
X/1
17%
X/2
12%
X/X
9%
2/1
8%
2/2
15%
2/X
4%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
45%
Home Win
46%
-0.9pp
24%
Draw
26%
-1.9pp
32%
Away Win
29%
+2.8pp
48%
Under 2.5
41%
+6.2pp
52%
Over 2.5
59%
-6.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
61%
-10.9pp
50%
BTTS No
39%
+10.9pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Neuchatel Xamax EU Bookmakers 50%
Head to Head
AWAY Aarau EU Bookmakers 32%
-5% / -5% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / -4%
1.72/1.10 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.49/2.06
-12% / +3% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +19% / -25%
53% Ball Possession 47%
13 Total Shots 10
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
335 · 79% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 293 · 75%
19.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 23.7
14.6 Crosses 15.1
1.6 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Neuchatel Xamax
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Aarau
1.67 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
1.51 xG 1.06
38% Ball Possession 62%
14 Total Shots 13
5 Shots on Target 4
5 Corners 7
284 Passes 482
77% Pass Accuracy 85%
24 Box Touches 17
20 Crosses 15
2 Yellow Cards 2
01.03.2024 Aarau Aarau 2-0 HT 1-0 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax İSV2
15.12.2023 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax 2-1 HT 2-1 Aarau Aarau İSV2
06.08.2023 Aarau Aarau 2-3 HT 0-2 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax İSV2
22.04.2023 Aarau Aarau 5-2 HT 3-1 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax İSV2
03.03.2023 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax 0-0 HT 0-0 Aarau Aarau İSV2
23.10.2022 Aarau Aarau 3-3 HT 1-0 Neuchatel Xamax Neuchatel Xamax İSV2
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Neuchatel Xamax
3-1
AWAY Aarau
1.34 xG 0.67
44% Ball Possession 56%
16 Total Shots 8
6 Shots on Target 1
8 Corners 2
384 Passes 513
87% Pass Accuracy 88%
25 Box Touches 13
24 Crosses 16
2 Yellow Cards 2
POST-MATCH Neuchatel Xamax vs Aarau
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Neuchatel Xamax got the better of Aarau 3-1. Half-time: 1-0.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Neuchatel Xamax as the likeliest winner at 45%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead.

Over 2.5 goals sat near a coin-flip at 52% and both teams to score was close to even at 50%.

On the day, Neuchatel Xamax had 44% of the ball to Aarau's 56%, shots finished 16-8, expected goals 1.34 to 0.67.

Coming into the game, across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.67 goals for Neuchatel Xamax and 2.17 for Aarau.

What was the final score of Neuchatel Xamax vs Aarau?

Neuchatel Xamax 3-1 Aarau in the Switzerland Challenge League on 12/04/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Neuchatel Xamax vs Aarau?

Before kick-off our model rated a Neuchatel Xamax win the most likely single outcome at about 45%, with the full match-result split Neuchatel Xamax 45%, draw 24%, Aarau 32%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Neuchatel Xamax), Over 2.5 — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Neuchatel Xamax) ✓ Over 2.5
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