Comerciantes Unidos 1-3 Alianza Lima — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 3 Aug 2024

📅03/08/2024 · 🕒23:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-1 2nd Score 0-1
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
19%
5.09
Draw
29%
3.64
Away
52%
1.6
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
60%
1.67
Over 2.5
40%
2.1
Both Teams to Score
Yes
50%
2.16
No
50%
1.61
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
33%
2-3 Goals
45%
4-5 Goals
17%
6+ Goals
5%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
8%
1/2
4%
1/X
3%
X/1
8%
X/2
15%
X/X
22%
2/1
4%
2/2
33%
2/X
3%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
19%
Home Win
17%
+2.7pp
29%
Draw
24%
+4.2pp
52%
Away Win
59%
-6.9pp
60%
Under 2.5
56%
+4.2pp
40%
Over 2.5
44%
-4.2pp
50%
BTTS Yes
42%
+7.6pp
50%
BTTS No
58%
-7.6pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Comerciantes Unidos EU Bookmakers 20%
Head to Head
AWAY Alianza Lima EU Bookmakers 62%
+0% / +0% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +6% / +6%
0.53/1.28 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.41/0.55
-100% / +150% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -8% / +63%
36% Ball Possession 64%
8 Total Shots 13
2 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 6
200 · 61% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 351 · 84%
9.4 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 25.8
15.2 Crosses 20.6
3.0 Yellow Cards 1.9
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Comerciantes Unidos
2W-1D-3L
AWAY Alianza Lima
1.17 Avg Goals (FT) 2.17
0.97 xG 2.54
47% Ball Possession 53%
14 Total Shots 16
4 Shots on Target 5
4 Corners 7
271 Passes 311
76% Pass Accuracy 80%
16 Box Touches 27
13 Crosses 30
2 Yellow Cards 2
26.02.2024 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 5-1 HT 3-1 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos PER
04.10.2018 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos 1-0 HT 0-0 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
23.07.2018 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 5-1 HT 2-1 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos PER
13.03.2018 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos 3-0 HT 2-0 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
05.02.2018 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 1-1 HT 1-1 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos PER
03.12.2017 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 2-0 HT 0-0 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Comerciantes Unidos
1-3
AWAY Alianza Lima
0.06 xG 1.93
45% Ball Possession 55%
3 Total Shots 16
2 Shots on Target 7
3 Corners 5
198 Passes 261
73% Pass Accuracy 77%
3 Box Touches 29
11 Crosses 11
3 Yellow Cards 1
POST-MATCH Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Lima
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alianza Lima saw off Comerciantes Unidos 3-1 away from home. The game was level at 1-1 at the break, so the decisive goals came after it.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Alianza Lima as the likeliest winner at 52%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — under 2.5 goals (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Comerciantes Unidos had 45% of the ball to Alianza Lima's 55%, shots finished 3-16, expected goals 0.06 to 1.93.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Alianza Lima led the recent series with 3 wins, 1 drawn. Those games averaged 1.17 goals for Comerciantes Unidos and 2.17 for Alianza Lima.

What was the final score of Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Lima?

Comerciantes Unidos 1-3 Alianza Lima in the Peru - Premier League on 03/08/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Comerciantes Unidos vs Alianza Lima?

Before kick-off our model rated an Alianza Lima win the most likely single outcome at about 52%, with the full match-result split Comerciantes Unidos 19%, draw 29%, Alianza Lima 52%. The final score 1-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alianza Lima) — while Under 2.5 went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Alianza Lima) ✗ Under 2.5
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