Alianza Lima 5-1 Comerciantes Unidos — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Peru - Premier League, 26 Feb 2024

📅26/02/2024 · 🕒00:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-0 2nd Score 1-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
60%
1.25
Draw
23%
5.28
Away
17%
10.87
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
52%
2.18
Over 2.5
48%
1.62
Both Teams to Score
Yes
40%
2.29
No
60%
1.55
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
29%
2-3 Goals
40%
4-5 Goals
22%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
38%
1/2
5%
1/X
7%
X/1
15%
X/2
6%
X/X
10%
2/1
7%
2/2
6%
2/X
6%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
60%
Home Win
76%
-16.3pp
23%
Draw
16%
+6.6pp
17%
Away Win
7%
+9.7pp
52%
Under 2.5
42%
+9.6pp
48%
Over 2.5
58%
-9.6pp
40%
BTTS Yes
40%
+0.8pp
60%
BTTS No
60%
-0.8pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Alianza Lima EU Bookmakers 80%
Head to Head
AWAY Comerciantes Unidos EU Bookmakers 9%
+6% / +10% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +19% / +19%
1.87/0.72 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.34/1.63
+7% / +55% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +105% / +108%
56% Ball Possession 44%
15 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
6 Corners 4
348 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 246 · 74%
25.3 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 10.0
20.5 Crosses 10.0
2.3 Yellow Cards 2.5
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Alianza Lima
2W-2D-2L
AWAY Comerciantes Unidos
1.33 Avg Goals (FT) 1.00
0.47 xG 1.27
49% Ball Possession 51%
13 Total Shots 17
4 Shots on Target 6
6 Corners 6
272 Passes 286
76% Pass Accuracy 77%
22 Box Touches 20
26 Crosses 17
2 Yellow Cards 2
04.10.2018 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos 1-0 HT 0-0 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
23.07.2018 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 5-1 HT 2-1 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos PER
13.03.2018 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos 3-0 HT 2-0 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
05.02.2018 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 1-1 HT 1-1 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos PER
03.12.2017 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima 2-0 HT 0-0 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos PER
13.08.2017 Comerciantes Unidos Comerciantes Unidos 0-0 HT 0-0 Alianza Lima Alianza Lima PER
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Alianza Lima
5-1
AWAY Comerciantes Unidos
4.61 xG 0.66
60% Ball Possession 40%
24 Total Shots 5
8 Shots on Target 2
9 Corners 0
348 Passes 212
84% Pass Accuracy 74%
40 Box Touches 4
28 Crosses 4
2 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Alianza Lima vs Comerciantes Unidos
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Alianza Lima ran out comfortable winners over Comerciantes Unidos 5-1. Half-time: 3-1. 6 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As we said in the preview, our model had Alianza Lima as the likeliest winner at 60%, and the 5-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (60%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Alianza Lima had 60% of the ball to Comerciantes Unidos's 40%, shots finished 24-5, expected goals 4.61 to 0.66.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, honours were even at 2 apiece, 2 drawn. Those games averaged 1.33 goals for Alianza Lima and 1.00 for Comerciantes Unidos.

What was the final score of Alianza Lima vs Comerciantes Unidos?

Alianza Lima 5-1 Comerciantes Unidos in the Peru - Premier League on 26/02/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Alianza Lima vs Comerciantes Unidos?

Before kick-off our model rated a Alianza Lima win the most likely single outcome at about 60%, with the full match-result split Alianza Lima 60%, draw 23%, Comerciantes Unidos 17%. The final score 5-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Alianza Lima) — while Under 2.5, BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Alianza Lima) ✗ Under 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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