Greuther Fürth 3-2 Dynamo Dresden — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Germany - 2. Bundesliga, 3 Aug 2025

Greuther Fürth
3-2 HT 2-1
Dynamo Dresden
📅03/08/2025 · 🕒14:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 2-1 ✗ 2nd Score 2-2 ✗
Germany - 2. Bundesliga – 2025/2026

Greuther Fürth vs Dynamo Dresden Prediction — Model Probabilities

MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
44%
2.25
Draw
26%
3.45
Away
30%
2.69
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
47%
2.21
Over 2.5
53%
1.6
Both Teams to Score
Yes
56%
1.53
No
44%
2.33
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
26%
4.29
2-3 Goals
38%
1.86
4-5 Goals
25%
2.85
6+ Goals
11%
8.22
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
21%
3.23
1/2
6%
26.5
1/X
7%
12.3
X/1
16%
5.59
X/2
13%
6.43
X/X
9%
5.35
2/1 EV+ ✗
8%
23.5
2/2
10%
4.01
2/X
10%
12.55
Value flag · 2/1 at 23.5 — our 8% vs market 2.2%. Did not land — edges play out over many matches, not one.
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
44%
Home Win
41%
+3.3pp
26%
Draw
26%
+0.3pp
30%
Away Win
34%
-3.6pp
47%
Under 2.5
41%
+5.5pp
53%
Over 2.5
59%
-5.5pp
56%
BTTS Yes
61%
-5.5pp
44%
BTTS No
39%
+5.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.

Greuther Fürth v Dynamo Dresden — Team-Based Signals

PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Greuther Fürth EU Bookmakers 44%
Head to Head
AWAY Dynamo Dresden EU Bookmakers 37%
+0% / -3% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations -3% / +5%
1.63/1.33 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 1.14/1.54
+3% / -14% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) -25% / +7%
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 11
5 Shots on Target 4
6 Corners 5
270 · 73% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 312 · 76%
25.1 Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area 17.6
19.1 Crosses 15.5
2.0 Yellow Cards 2.4

Greuther Fürth vs Dynamo Dresden Head-to-Head — Last 6 Meetings

H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Greuther Fürth
3W-3D-0L
AWAY Dynamo Dresden
1.00 Avg Goals (FT) 0.33
1.22 xG 0.96
47% Ball Possession 53%
13 Total Shots 12
4 Shots on Target 2
4 Corners 5
302 Passes 351
75% Pass Accuracy 77%
18 Box Touches 18
16 Crosses 18
2 Yellow Cards 2
The Meetings
09.06.2020 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden 1-1 HT 0-1 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth AL2
18.10.2019 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth 2-0 HT 2-0 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden AL2
04.04.2019 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth 0-0 HT 0-0 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden AL2
30.09.2018 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden 0-1 HT 0-0 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth AL2
11.02.2018 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth 1-0 HT 1-0 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden AL2
08.09.2017 Dynamo Dresden Dynamo Dresden 1-1 HT 1-0 Greuther Fürth Greuther Fürth AL2

Greuther Fürth 3-2 Dynamo Dresden — Actual Match Statistics

RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Greuther Fürth
3-2
AWAY Dynamo Dresden
2.17 xG 1.13
31% Ball Possession 69%
10 Total Shots 21
5 Shots on Target 4
4 Corners 10
165 Passes 461
71% Pass Accuracy 89%
17 Box Touches 32
10 Crosses 40
1 Yellow Cards 0
POST-MATCH Greuther Fürth vs Dynamo Dresden
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Greuther Fürth edged past Dynamo Dresden 3-2. Half-time: 2-1. 5 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

As our pre-match numbers suggested, our model had Greuther Fürth as the likeliest winner at 44%, and the 3-2 landed on that lead. We had also flagged both teams to score (56%), and that read landed as well.

On the day, Greuther Fürth had 31% of the ball to Dynamo Dresden's 69%, shots finished 10-21, expected goals 2.17 to 1.13.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Greuther Fürth had the better of it with 3 wins, 3 drawn. Those games averaged 1.00 goals for Greuther Fürth and 0.33 for Dynamo Dresden.

What was the final score of Greuther Fürth vs Dynamo Dresden?

Greuther Fürth 3-2 Dynamo Dresden in the Germany - 2. Bundesliga on 03/08/2025. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Greuther Fürth vs Dynamo Dresden?

Before kick-off our model rated a Greuther Fürth win the most likely single outcome at about 44%, with the full match-result split Greuther Fürth 44%, draw 26%, Dynamo Dresden 30%. The final score 3-2 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Greuther Fürth), Over 2.5, BTTS Yes — a clean sweep of the main markets.

✓ Match Result (Greuther Fürth) ✓ Over 2.5 ✓ BTTS Yes
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