Ethiopia Nigd Bank 3-1 Arba Minch Kenema — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Etiyopya - Premier League, 3 Oct 2024

📅03/10/2024 · 🕒16:00 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 1-0 2nd Score 2-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
53%
1.57
Draw
23%
3.72
Away
24%
5.11
Under/Over 2.5
Under
49%
1.86
Over
51%
1.86
Both Teams to Score
Yes
44%
1.95
No Pick
56%
1.76
Total Goals
0-1
24%
2-3
43%
4-5
23%
6+
10%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
28%
1/2
3%
1/X
12%
X/1
14%
X/2
9%
X/X
4%
2/1
10%
2/2
12%
2/X
8%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
Our Pick
BTTS No — 56%
Fair price · no betting value
The bookmaker priced every market fairly — no dependable value at these odds, so skipping is the disciplined play.
Our Pick is our best estimate of the outcome; a value flag is a separate, rarer judgement about the price.
STRENGTH BTTS No — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
53%
Home Win
60%
-7.1pp
23%
Draw
24%
-0.6pp
24%
Away Win
17%
+7.6pp
49%
Under 2.5
50%
-0.8pp
51%
Over 2.5
50%
+0.8pp
44%
BTTS Yes
47%
-3.5pp
56%
BTTS No
53%
+3.5pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Ethiopia Nigd Bank EU Bookmakers 64%
Head to Head
AWAY Arba Minch Kenema EU Bookmakers 20%
+13% / +13% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +0% / +0%
–/– Expected GoalsScored / Conceded –/–
+128% / -44% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) /
57% Ball Possession 43%
14 Total Shots 9
6 Shots on Target 3
5 Corners 4
392 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 291 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
1.0 Yellow Cards
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Ethiopia Nigd Bank
3-1
AWAY Arba Minch Kenema
56% Ball Possession 44%
12 Total Shots 7
4 Shots on Target 1
2 Corners 3
0 Yellow Cards 3
POST-MATCH Ethiopia Nigd Bank vs Arba Minch Kenema
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Ethiopia Nigd Bank got the better of Arba Minch Kenema 3-1.

As we highlighted before kick-off, our model had Ethiopia Nigd Bank as the likeliest winner at 53%, and the 3-1 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (56%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Ethiopia Nigd Bank had 56% of the ball to Arba Minch Kenema's 44%, shots finished 12-7.

What was the final score of Ethiopia Nigd Bank vs Arba Minch Kenema?

Ethiopia Nigd Bank 3-1 Arba Minch Kenema in the Etiyopya - Premier League on 03/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Ethiopia Nigd Bank vs Arba Minch Kenema?

Before kick-off our model rated a Ethiopia Nigd Bank win the most likely single outcome at about 53%, with the full match-result split Ethiopia Nigd Bank 53%, draw 23%, Arba Minch Kenema 24%. The final score 3-1 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Ethiopia Nigd Bank), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Ethiopia Nigd Bank) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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