Municipal 4-3 Xinabajul — Result, Statistics & Match Review — Guatemala - National League, 3 Oct 2024

📅03/10/2024 · 🕒21:30 Istanbul · GMT+3
Top 2 Score Predictions
1st Score 3-0 2nd Score 4-0
MODEL iddaakolik · Our Predictions
Probability per market · Global + League + Team blend
⏱ Odds and predictions are pre-match — updates freeze from ~20 minutes before kick-off.
Match Result
Home
61%
1.33
Draw
22%
4.49
Away
17%
7.37
Under/Over 2.5
Under 2.5
46%
1.91
Over 2.5
54%
1.8
Both Teams to Score
Yes
42%
2.27
No
58%
1.56
Total Goals
0-1 Goal
24%
2-3 Goals
44%
4-5 Goals
23%
6+ Goals
9%
Half Time / Full Time
1/1
36%
1/2
5%
1/X
9%
X/1
16%
X/2
8%
X/X
8%
2/1
9%
2/2
4%
2/X
5%
PRO iddaakolik · Analysis Engine
Model vs Market · Probabilities · Discipline
💡 For the risk lovers: Home Win ★★★ — pattern-based signals at fair odds; informational, not a sized bet.
Model vs Market — where we differ
iddaakolik Market EU Bookmakers
61%
Home Win
70%
-9.4pp
22%
Draw
19%
+3.0pp
17%
Away Win
11%
+6.4pp
46%
Under 2.5
48%
-2.2pp
54%
Over 2.5
52%
+2.2pp
42%
BTTS Yes
40%
+1.7pp
58%
BTTS No
60%
-1.7pp
gold — our model green — our served pick grey — EU market (margin removed: each group sums to 100%)
Edge (pp): green = we see more probability than the market · gold = essentially even (±0.5pp) · red = we see less. The Decision above outranks any single row: the engine backs well-supported edges, not merely big ones.
PREVIEW Match Preview Engine
iddaakolik Team Elo · Form · Goals signals
HOME Municipal EU Bookmakers 75%
Head to Head
AWAY Xinabajul EU Bookmakers 14%
+0% / +4% Team Performance vs MarketAll History / Recent Form · above/below bookmaker expectations +13% / +12%
2.32/0.64 Expected GoalsScored / Conceded 0.90/1.56
+25% / +12% Attack / Defense(vs League Avg.) +23% / +16%
55% Ball Possession 45%
14 Total Shots 10
6 Shots on Target 3
7 Corners 4
360 · 81% PassesSuccessful · Accuracy 282 · 76%
Box TouchesOpposition Penalty Area
Crosses
3.0 Yellow Cards 4.1
H2H Past Meetings
Real recorded figures, averaged over these meetings
HOME Municipal
6W-0D-0L
AWAY Xinabajul
1.83 Avg Goals (FT) 0.17
60% Ball Possession 40%
15 Total Shots 11
7 Shots on Target 2
5 Corners 6
4 Yellow Cards 4
13.04.2024 Municipal Municipal 1-0 HT 0-0 Xinabajul Xinabajul GUAT
06.11.2023 Xinabajul Xinabajul 0-2 HT 0-0 Municipal Municipal GUAT
17.04.2023 Xinabajul Xinabajul 1-2 HT 1-2 Municipal Municipal GUAT
19.02.2023 Municipal Municipal 3-0 HT 1-0 Xinabajul Xinabajul GUAT
27.11.2022 Xinabajul Xinabajul 0-1 HT 0-0 Municipal Municipal GUAT
18.09.2022 Municipal Municipal 2-0 HT 1-0 Xinabajul Xinabajul GUAT
RESULT Match Result
Real recorded figures from this match
HOME Municipal
4-3
AWAY Xinabajul
52% Ball Possession 48%
16 Total Shots 15
9 Shots on Target 8
5 Corners 4
5 Yellow Cards 4
POST-MATCH Municipal vs Xinabajul
iddaakolik Post-Match Analysis — what we said & what happened

Municipal squeezed past Xinabajul 4-3. Half-time: 3-0. 7 goals made it one of the day's more open games.

Just as the model leaned, our model had Municipal as the likeliest winner at 61%, and the 4-3 landed on that lead. The goals read — no to both teams scoring (58%) — went the other way, though.

On the day, Municipal had 52% of the ball to Xinabajul's 48%, shots finished 16-15.

For context: across their last 6 meetings in our records, Municipal had the better of it with 6 wins. Those games averaged 1.83 goals for Municipal and 0.17 for Xinabajul.

What was the final score of Municipal vs Xinabajul?

Municipal 4-3 Xinabajul in the Guatemala - National League on 03/10/2024. The analysis above shows what our model predicted before kick-off next to what actually happened.

What did the model predict for Municipal vs Xinabajul?

Before kick-off our model rated a Municipal win the most likely single outcome at about 61%, with the full match-result split Municipal 61%, draw 22%, Xinabajul 17%. The final score 4-3 confirmed our model's pre-match leads on Match Result (Municipal), Over 2.5 — while BTTS No went the other way.

✓ Match Result (Municipal) ✓ Over 2.5 ✗ BTTS No
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